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AXPZ20 KNHC 130948

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Mon Jan 13 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0940 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES....



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event in the

Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin this afternoon with fresh

to strong speeds, rapidly reaching minimal gale-force during the

evenings through early morning hours through Fri morning. Seas 

are forecast to build to 12 ft with the strongest winds.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N105W to 07N112W. 

The ITCZ continues from 07N112W to 06N130W to beyond 06N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 101W 

and 112W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,

refer to the Special Features section for more details.



A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California

where currently there is a weak pressure gradient that supports

light to gentle winds per recent scatterometer data. Seas along

the Baja offshores are moderate except N of Punta Eugenia where

seas to 8 ft in NW swell continue to gradually subside. Along 

the Gulf of California, a tighter pressure gradient is leading to

moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas to 4 ft. Light to 

gentle winds and moderate seas in NW swell are seen elsewhere 

across the SW Mexican offshore waters. 



For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore

forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly gentle to 

moderate winds. Long period NW swell generating rough seas to 9 

ft N of Punta Eugenia will subside later this morning. Pulsing 

fresh to strong NW winds with building seas of 6 to 7 ft are 

expected in the Gulf of California tonight through early Wed as 

high pressure establishes over the Great Basin of the United 

States. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is 

forecast to begin this afternoon, with winds reaching minimal 

gale force mainly from the evenings through early morning hours 

through Fri morning. Seas are forecast to build to 12 ft with 

the strongest winds.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are ongoing in

the Gulf of Papagayo as air funnels through the Cordillera 

Mountains and over Lake Nicaragua. Moderate to locally fresh

northerly winds and moderate seas to 4 ft are in the Gulf of

Panama while southerly gentle to moderate winds and seas to 5 ft

are across the offshore waters between Ecuador and The Galapagos

Islands. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are

elsewhere.



For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the

Gulf of Papagayo will reach fresh to strong speeds this afternoon 

and continue through Fri night, potentially increasing to near 

gale-force on Wed as high pressure ridging builds over the Caribbean.

Seas with this gap wind event will be mainly moderate, except on

Wed when seas are forecast to be rough to 9 ft with the 

strongest winds. Moderate easterly winds from Papagayo will 

propagate across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El 

Salvador through mid-week. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to 

locally fresh N winds will occur in the Gulf of Panama through 

late this week. Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to 

moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of the offshore 

forecast waters through Fri. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A strong high pressure of 1038 mb located well N of area extends

a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 105W. 

Due to the tight pressure gradient associated with this system, 

moderate to fresh N to NE winds are occurring N of 20N W of 120W.

Seas of 9 to 10 ft in NE long period swell are associated with these

winds. In addition, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted N 

of the ITCZ to about 21N and W of 130W. Elsewhere, gentle to 

moderate winds prevail N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ W of 105W 

while light to gentle winds are to the south.



For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather

pattern across the waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis

and W of 110W producing moderate to fresh trade winds. Northerly 

swell will continue to affect the subtropical waters with seas to

11 ft through at least Wed. A surface trough will develop W of 

Baja California Norte today and move westward through mid-week. 

The pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure to the

N will support fresh to locally strong winds on either side of 

the trough axis on Tue. 



$$

Ramos