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AXPZ20 KNHC 132059

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Mon Jan 13 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2030 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES....



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across

the western Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds will

quickly reach gale-force speeds by this evening across the 

Tehuantepec region as the pressure gradient intensifies across 

the area. These conditions will continue through Tue night. Rough

seas will prevail with the strongest winds. 



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N102W to 07N109W. 

The ITCZ continues from 07N109W to beyond 07N140W. No significant

convection is noted at this time.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,

refer to the Special Features section above for details.



A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 

California. A weak pressure gradient in the area supports light 

to gentle winds per recent scatterometer data. Seas along the 

Baja offshores are moderate except N of Punta Eugenia where seas 

to 8 ft in NW swell continue to gradually subside. Along the Gulf

of California, a tight pressure gradient is leading to moderate 

to fresh NW winds and seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds and 

moderate seas in NW swell are seen elsewhere across the SW 

Mexican offshore waters. 



For the forecast, outside of the gulf of Tehuantepec, the ridge 

will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja 

California producing gentle to moderate winds. Long period NW 

swell generating rough seas to 8 ft N of Punta Eugenia will 

subside tonight. Pulsing fresh to strong NW winds with building 

seas of 6 to 7 ft are expected in the Gulf of California tonight 

through early Wed as high pressure establishes over the Great 

Basin of the United States. 



Looking ahead, the next round of gale force winds in the

Tehuantepec region is expected by Thu night, as a cold front is 

expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico enhancing the 

pressure gradient across the area.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are ongoing in

the Gulf of Papagayo as air funnels through the Cordillera 

Mountains and over Lake Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh northerly 

winds and moderate seas to 4 ft are in the Gulf of Panama while 

southerly gentle to moderate winds and seas to 5 ft are across 

the offshore waters between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands. 

Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.



For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the

Gulf of Papagayo will reach fresh to strong speeds this afternoon 

and continue through Fri night, potentially increasing to near 

gale-force on Wed as high pressure ridging builds over the Caribbean.

Rough seas are expected with this gap wind event. Moderate 

easterly winds from Papagayo will propagate across the outer 

offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through mid-week. 

Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh N winds will occur in the 

Gulf of Panama through late this week. Gentle to moderate winds 

and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of 

the offshore forecast waters through Fri. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A strong high pressure of 1036 mb located well N of area extends

a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 120W. 

Due to the tight pressure gradient associated with this system, 

moderate to fresh N to NE winds are occurring N of 10N W of 125W.

Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NE long period swell are associated with 

these winds. In addition, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are 

noted N of the ITCZ to about 21N and W of 135W, with seas to 9 

ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail N of the monsoon 

trough/ITCZ while light to gentle winds are to the south.



For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather

pattern across the waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis

and W of 110W producing moderate to fresh trade winds. Northerly 

swell will continue to affect the subtropical waters with seas to

11 ft through at least midweek. A surface trough will intensify 

W of Baja California Norte tonight while moving westward through

mid-week. The pressure gradient between the trough and high 

pressure to the N will support fresh to strong winds on either 

side of the trough axis on Tue. 



$$

ERA