****0000005872****
AXPZ20 KNHC 140405

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Tue Jan 14 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0350 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES....



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds behind a

stationary front in the Gulf of Mexico are funneling through the

Chivela Pass and supporting minimal gale-force NNE winds in the

Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Gales will continue through early Tue

morning when seas are expected to build to 13 ft. Gales will

briefly resume again Tue evening and then again Wed night as

strong high pressure builds over Texas just N of a surface trough

over the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas in the Tehuantepec region 

during this period will range between 8-13 ft, building to 15 ft

by Thu morning. Winds will diminish below gale-force Thu night, 

to fresh to strong speeds Fri morning and gentle to moderate 

speeds during the afternoon hours.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 07N93W to 09N104W to

06N111W. The ITCZ continues from 06N111W to 06N130W to beyond 

06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 12N E of 

92W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details

on an ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



A weak pressure gradient in the region due to a surface trough

along western Mexico and another westward moving trough to the

west of the Baja Califniania Peninsula continue to support light

to gentle winds and moderate seas to 6 ft in NW swell along the

Baja and SW Mexico offshore waters. High pressure over the Great

Basin of the United States, is supporting moderate to fresh NW

winds along the Gulf of California where seas are 3-6 ft.

Otherwise, gales are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where

moderate seas are forecast to become rough tonight.  



For the forecast, minimal gale-force NNE winds ongoing in the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec region will continue through early Tue 

morning when seas are expected to build to 13 ft. Gales will 

briefly resume again Tue evening and then again Wed night as 

strong high pressure builds over Texas just N of a surface trough

over the western Gulf of Mexico. Winds will diminish below gale-

force Thu night, to fresh to strong speeds Fri morning and gentle

to moderate speeds during the afternoon hours. Winds in the Gulf

of California are forecast to reach locally strong speeds Tue and

Tue night, gradually diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Wed 

night, and then prevail mainly over the southern and entrance of

the Gulf through Sat night. Gentle to moderate NE winds are

forecast to develop across the Baja California Sur Peninsula on

Wed morning and prevail while expaning to the Baja Norte

offshores through the weekend. Light to gentle winds are expected

elsewhere. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate seas to 6 ft are 

ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate E winds associated with

this gap wind event extend to the outer offshore waters of

Guatemala and El Salvador where seas are 6 ft in southerly swell.

In the Gulf of Panama, winds are moderate to fresh from the NNE

and seas are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to 

moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere.



For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of

Papagayo will continue through Sat, likely increasing to near 

gale-force on Wed as high pressure ridging builds over the 

Caribbean. Rough seas to 10 ft are expected with this gap wind 

event. Moderate to fresh easterly winds from the Papagayo gap

wind event will continue to propagate across the outer offshore 

waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Wed night. Pulsing 

fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate

speeds on Thu and to light to gentle speeds over the weekend. 

Otherwise, light to gentle southerly winds between Ecuador and

The Galapagos Islands will reach moderate speeds Sat night.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A strong high pressure of 1035 mb located well N of area extends

a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. 

To the west of the Baja California offshore waters, a surface

trough extends along 121W. The pressure gradient between the

trough and the ridge to the west continues to support moderate 

to fresh NE to E winds N of 20N and W of 125W where seas are 8 to

11 ft in northerly swell. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate

and seas are moderate. 



For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather

pattern across the waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis

and W of 110W producing moderate to fresh trade winds. Northerly 

swell will continue to affect the subtropical waters with seas to

11 ft through at least mid-week. A surface trough will intensify

W of Baja California Norte tonight while moving westward through

Wed. The pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure 

to the N will support fresh to strong winds on either side of the

trough axis on Tue. 



$$

Ramos