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AXPZ20 KNHC 140949

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Tue Jan 14 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0940 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES....



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds behind a

cold front in the Gulf of Mexico are funneling through the 

Chivela Pass and supporting minimal gale-force NNE winds in the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Gales will continue through later

this morning when seas are expected to be at approximately 10 

ft. Gales will likely resume again this evening and then again 

Wed night as strong high pressure builds over Texas just N of a 

surface trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas in the 

Tehuantepec region during this period will peak at 13-14 ft. 

Winds will diminish below gale-force Thu night, to fresh to 

strong speeds Fri morning and gentle to moderate speeds during 

the afternoon hours.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N91W to 08N104W to 

05N114W. The ITCZ continues from 05N114W to 06N130W to beyond 

04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 10N E of 

93W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details

on an ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



A weak pressure gradient in the region due to a surface trough

along western Mexico and another westward moving trough to the

west of the Baja Califniania Peninsula offshore waters near 123W, 

continue to support light to gentle winds and moderate seas to 7

ft in NW swell along the Baja and SW Mexico offshore waters.

Locally moderate NE winds are likely near the Baja California coast

as well as near the entrance of the Gulf of California. High 

pressure over the Great Basin of the United States, is supporting 

fresh to locally strong NW winds along the Gulf of California 

where seas are 3-5 ft. Otherwise, gales are ongoing in the Gulf 

of Tehuantepec where rough seas have built to 9-10 ft. 



For the forecast, minimal gale-force NNE winds ongoing in the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec region will continue through later this 

morning when seas are expected to be at approximately 10 ft. 

Gales will likely resume again this evening and then again Wed 

night as strong high pressure builds over Texas just N of a 

surface trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas in the 

Tehuantepec region during this period will peak at 13-14 ft. 

Winds will diminish below gale-force Thu night, to fresh to 

strong speeds Fri morning and gentle to moderate speeds during 

the afternoon hours. Fresh to locally strong winds in the Gulf of

California are forecast to continue through tonight, gradually 

diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Wed night, and then prevail

mainly over the southern and entrance of the Gulf through Sat 

night. Gentle to moderate NE winds are forecast to develop across

the Baja California Sur Peninsula Wed morning and prevail while 

expaning to the Baja Norte offshores through the weekend. Light 

to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate seas to 6 ft are 

ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate E winds associated with

this gap wind event extend to the outer offshore waters of

Guatemala and El Salvador where seas are 6 ft in NW swell. In 

the Gulf of Panama, winds are moderate to locally fresh from the

NNE and seas are 3-4 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to 

moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere between 

Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands.



For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of

Papagayo will continue through Sat, likely increasing to near 

gale-force on Wed as high pressure ridging builds over the 

Caribbean. Rough seas to 10 ft are expected with this gap wind 

event. Moderate to fresh easterly winds from the Papagayo gap

wind event will continue to propagate across the outer offshore 

waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Wed night. Pulsing 

fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate

speeds on Thu and to light to gentle speeds over the weekend. 

Otherwise, light to gentle southerly winds between Ecuador and

The Galapagos Islands will reach moderate speeds Sat night.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A strong high pressure of 1035 mb located well N of area extends

a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. 

To the west of the Baja California offshore waters, a surface

trough extends along 123W. The pressure gradient between the 

trough and the ridge to the west continues to support moderate to

fresh NE to E winds N of 20N and W of 126W where seas are 8 to 

11 ft in northerly swell. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate

and seas are moderate. 



For the forecast, the surface trough to the west of the Baja

California offshore waters will dissipate late on Wed and then

surface ridging will domainte the subtropical waters through the

weekend. Northerly swell to the west of the surface trough will

gradually subside before decaying on Thu morning. Otheriwise, a

surface trough is forecast to develop over tropical waters near

110W on Wed and then propagate westward enhancing winds to fresh

to locally strong speeds, and building seas to 10 ft through Sat

night.



$$

Ramos