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AXPZ20 KNHC 142100

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Tue Jan 14 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2030 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES....



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds are funneling 

through the Chivela Pass and supporting gale-force NNE winds in 

the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Gales will continue through this 

evening, with seas peaking to 10 ft. Gales will likely resume 

again Wed night as strong high pressure builds over Texas just N 

of a surface trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas in the 

Tehuantepec region during this period will peak at 13 ft, mainly 

on Thu night. Winds will quickly diminish below gale-force by 

early Fri.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 04N109W. The ITCZ 

continues from 04N109W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate

convection is from 03N to 08N between 91W and 95W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details

on an ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



A weak pressure gradient in the region continues to support 

moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas in NW swell along 

the Baja and SW Mexico offshore waters N of 24N. Light to gentle 

NE winds prevail elsewhere. High pressure over the Great Basin 

of the United States is supporting fresh to strong northerly 

winds in the Gulf of California, with seas to 6 ft. 



For the forecast, gale-force NNE winds in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec region will continue through this evening, with seas 

peaking to 10 ft. Gales will likely resume again Wed night as 

strong high pressure builds over Texas just N of a surface trough

over the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas in the Tehuantepec region 

during this period will peak at 13 ft, mainly on Thu night. Winds

will quickly diminish below gale-force by early Fri. Fresh to 

strong winds in the Gulf of California will continue through 

tonight, gradually diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Wed 

night, and then prevail mainly over the southern and entrance of 

the Gulf through Sat night. Gentle to moderate NE winds are 

forecast to develop across Baja California Sur Wed morning  

reaching Baja Norte offshores by the weekend. Light to gentle 

winds are expected elsewhere. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate seas to 8 ft are 

ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate E winds associated with

this gap wind event extend to the outer offshore waters of 

Guatemala and El Salvador where seas are 6 ft in NW swell. In the

Gulf of Panama, winds are moderate to fresh from the NNE and 

seas are 3-4 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate 

seas in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere between Ecuador and 

The Galapagos Islands.



For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of

Papagayo will continue through Sat, likely increasing to near 

gale-force on Wed morning as high pressure ridging builds over 

the Caribbean. Rough seas are expected with this gap wind event.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds from the Papagayo gap wind 

event will continue to propagate across the outer offshore waters

of Guatemala and El Salvador through Wed night. Pulsing fresh N 

winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds on 

Thu and to light to gentle speeds over the weekend. Otherwise, 

light to gentle southerly winds between Ecuador and The Galapagos

Islands will reach moderate speeds Sat night.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A strong high pressure of 1035 mb located well N of area extends

a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. 

To the west of the Baja California offshore waters, a 1020 mb low

is analyzed near 28N128W with surface trough from 30N128W to the

low to 22N125W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 11 ft are

noted with the low/trough. N of 20N and W of 123W, fresh winds 

and seas are 8 to 11 ft in northerly swell, along with.

Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate and seas are moderate. 



For the forecast, the surface trough to the west of the Baja

California offshore waters will dissipate on Thu and then 

surface ridging will dominate the subtropical waters through the 

weekend. Northerly swell to the west of the surface trough will 

gradually subside before decaying on Thu morning. Otherwise, a 

surface trough is forecast to develop over tropical waters near 

115W by the end of the week and then propagate westward 

enhancing winds to fresh to locally strong speeds, and building 

seas to 10 ft through Sat night.



$$

ERA