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AXPZ20 KNHC 151544

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Sat Feb 15 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 05N110W. The ITCZ 

continues from 05N110W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate 

convection is occurring S of 10N and E of 88W, and from 01N to 

17N between 96W and 119W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Surface ridging prevails across the area. A long period NW swell

continues to spread across the Baja California offshore waters,

with rough seas noted N of 22N and very rough seas N of 29N.

Fresh NW winds prevail across this area. Moderate winds and seas

prevail elsewhere. 



For the forecast, the large NW swell will reach the waters off 

Cabo San Lucas and the Revillagigedo Islands today, before 

subsiding below 8 ft by late Sun night across the region. Looking

ahead, expect another round of fresh to strong gap winds across 

the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon, before diminishing into mid week. 

Another round of large NW swell will impact the waters off Baja 

California Norte Tue and Wed. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate to fresh E winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo as 

low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia and high 

pressure remains in the northern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to 

gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail in the remainder of 

the forecast waters. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse 

across the Gulf of Papagayo through late this morning as a tight

pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the northern

Caribbean and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Moderate 

seas may accompany these winds. Winds may briefly decrease this 

weekend before fresh gap winds redevelop early next week. 

Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 

will prevail across the waters offshore of Central and South 

America into early next week. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



High pressure continues to build north of the area over the 

northeast Pacific. Moderate to fresh NE winds persist south of 

the front and high pressure, from 10N to 20N west of 110W. Gentle

breezes are noted elsewhere. Large NW swell of 8 to 12 ft 

prevails over the region north of 15N and west of 120W. A mix of

NW swell with shorter period NE waves associated with the trade 

winds are noted in the area from 10N to 15N west of 125W. 

Moderate seas persist elsewhere.



For the forecast, the rough to very rough seas will spread 

across the waters west of 110W through today, while subsiding. 

High pressure building in the wake of the front will support a 

broader area of fresh trade winds across the tropical Pacific 

west of 115W through late today. The high pressure will weaken 

tonight through Sun ahead of another front approaching from the 

northwest, allowing trade winds to diminish. New NW swell will 

spread across the northern waters through early next week. 



$$

ERA