****0000005494****
AXPZ20 KNHC 152056

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Wed Jan 15 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2030 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES....



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds funneling 

through the Chivela Pass will continue to support gale-force NNE

winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Thu night. Peak 

seas in the Tehuantepec region during this period will peak 

to 11 ft mainly on Thu. Winds will quickly diminish below gale-

force early on Fri as return flow establishes across the Gulf of 

Mexico. Looking ahead, a second gale-force gap wind event is 

forecast for the region by Sun evening. 



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N99W. The ITCZ 

continues from 06N99W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate 

convection is from 01N to 06N and E of 96W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details

on an ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



A weak pressure gradient prevails across the region. A surface 

trough is west of the Baja California Peninsula along 126W. With

these, light to gentle winds prevail across the Baja and SW 

Mexico offshore waters. Seas in these two regions remain moderate

in the 4-6 ft range and in NW swell. Northerly winds associated 

with a surface trough over the far western Gulf of Mexico 

continue to funnel through the Chivela Pass, supporting gale- 

force winds in the Tehuantepec region where peak seas are 8-10 

ft. Otherwise, high pressure over the Great Basin of the United 

States is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf 

of California, with seas to 6 ft. 



For the forecast, gale-force NNE winds in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec region will continue through Thu night. Winds will 

quickly diminish below gale-force early on Fri as return flow 

establishes across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds in 

the Gulf of California will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds 

this evening, and then prevail mainly over the southern and 

entrance of the Gulf through Sun night. A surface trough will 

develop near the entrance of the Gulf of California on Fri while 

a strong ridge extends to Los Cabos, which will result in 

moderate NNE winds along the Baja California offshores through 

the weekend. Looking ahead, a second gale-force gap wind event 

is forecast for the region by Sun evening. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and seas to 8-10 ft are 

ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate E winds associated with

this gap wind event extend to the outer offshore waters of 

Guatemala and El Salvador where seas are 5 ft in mixed E and NW 

swell. In the Gulf of Panama, winds are moderate to fresh from 

the NNE and seas are 3-4 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to 

moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere between 

Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands.



For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds in the 

Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to fresh to strong speeds Sat and

moderate to fresh speeds Sun. Rough seas are expected with this 

gap wind event. Moderate to fresh easterly winds from the 

Papagayo gap wind will continue to propagate across the outer 

offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight. 

Pulsing fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to 

moderate speeds on Thu and to light to gentle speeds over the 

weekend. Otherwise, light to gentle southerly winds between 

Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands will reach moderate speeds Sat 

night into Sun.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A high pressure of 1029 mb located well N of area extends a 

ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. A 

weakness in the ridge is being analyzed as a surface trough that 

extends from 18N124W to 30N131W. Fresh NE winds in the vicinity 

of the trough between 121W and 135W where seas are 8-9 ft. Far SW

from the SW Mexican offshore waters, an area of moderate to 

fresh NE to E winds is present from 03N-16N and E of 122W. 

Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate and seas are moderate. 



For the forecast, the surface trough to the west of the Baja

California offshore waters will dissipate on Thu and then 

surface ridging will dominate the subtropical waters through the 

weekend. Northerly swell to the west of the surface trough will 

gradually subside before decaying on Thu morning. Otherwise, a 

surface trough is forecast to develop over tropical waters near 

110W tonight and then propagate westward enhancing winds to 

fresh to locally strong speeds, and building seas to 10 ft 

through Sun night.



$$

ERA