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AXPZ20 KNHC 160406

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Thu Jan 16 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0350 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES....



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds funneling 

through the Chivela Pass will continue to support gale-force NNE

winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Thu night. Peak 

seas in the Tehuantepec region during this period will be around

11-13 ft mainly on Thu. Winds will quickly diminish below gale-

force early on Fri as return flow establishes across the Gulf of 

Mexico. Looking ahead, a second and stronger gale-force gap wind

event is possible for the region by Sun evening, continuing 

through early next week. Gale winds to 40 kt and seas to 20 ft 

are forecast with this second event. 



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N90W to 04N114W. The

ITCZ continues from 04N114W to 04N130W and beyond 07N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 07N between 91W and

99W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details

on an ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



A weak pressure gradient prevails across the region due to a pair

of surface troughs, one along Baja California Sur and another west

of the Baja California Peninsula from 18N to 27N along 122W. 

This is supporting light to gentle winds across the Baja

California offshore waters N of 22N along with moderate seas to 6

ft in NW swell. South of 22N, a tighter pressure gradient,

support moderate NE winds off the coast of Baja California Sur. 

High pressure N of the area is shifting eastward and with that NW

winds in the Gulf of California have diminished to moderate to 

fresh speeds and seas are 3-4 ft. These winds extend across the 

entrace of the Gulf as well as Jalisco offshore waters.

Otherwise, gale-force winds prevail in the Tehuantepec region 

where peak seas are 8-10 ft.



For the forecast, gale-force NNE winds in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec region will continue through Thu night. Winds will 

quickly diminish below gale-force early on Fri as return flow 

establishes across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh NW winds

in the Gulf of California will prevail mainly over the southern 

and entrance of the Gulf through Mon. A surface trough will 

develop near the entrance of the Gulf of California on Fri while 

a strong ridge extends to Los Cabos, which will result in 

moderate NNE winds along the Baja California offshores through 

the weekend. Looking ahead, a second and stronger gale-force gap

wind event is forecast for the Tehuantepec region by Sun 

evening, continuing through early next week.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and seas to 8-9 ft are 

ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate E winds associated with

this gap wind event extend to the outer offshore waters of 

Guatemala and El Salvador where seas are 5 ft in mixed E and NW 

swell. In the Gulf of Panama, winds are moderate to fresh from 

the NNE and seas are 3-4 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to 

moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere between 

Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands.



For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds in the 

Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to fresh to strong speeds Sat and

moderate to fresh speeds Sun. Rough seas are expected with this 

gap wind event. Moderate to fresh easterly winds from the 

Papagayo gap wind will continue to propagate across the outer 

offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Thu. 

Pulsing fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to 

moderate speeds on Thu and to light to gentle speeds over the 

weekend. Otherwise, light to gentle southerly winds between 

Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands will reach moderate speeds Sat 

night into Mon.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A high pressure of 1027 mb located N of area extends a ridge 

across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. A 

weakness in the ridge is being analyzed as a surface trough 

west of the Baja California Peninsula from 18N to 27N along 

122W. With the reduction of the high pressure N of the area, NNE

winds N of 20N have diminished to moderate speeds. However, NW

swell continue to support 8-9 ft seas W of 131W. Far SW from 

the SW Mexican offshore waters, an area of moderate to fresh NE 

to E winds is present from 05N-16N and between 100W and 124W. 

Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate and seas are moderate. 



For the forecast, the surface trough to the west of the Baja

California offshore waters will dissipate on Thu and then 

surface ridging will dominate the subtropical waters through the 

weekend. Northerly swell to the west of the surface trough will 

gradually subside before decaying on Thu morning. Otherwise, a 

surface trough is forecast to develop over tropical waters near 

110W tonight and then propagate westward enhancing winds to 

fresh to locally strong speeds, and building seas to 10 ft 

through Sun night.



$$

Ramos