****0000005206****
AXPZ20 KNHC 161603

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Thu Jan 16 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES....



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds funneling through

the Chivela Pass will continue to support gale-force northerly 

winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through tonight. Peak 

seas during this period will be around 12 ft. Winds will quickly

diminish below gale-force early on Fri as return flow establishes

across the western Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, a second and 

stronger gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec area by

Sun night. N winds will rapidly increase to gale force by early 

Mon morning with seas building to 12 ft. Then, winds will 

further increase to 40 kt by early Mon afternoon with seas around

15 ft. Gale conditions and very rough seas are likely to persist

through mid-week.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 06N95W. The ITCZ 

continues from 06N95W to 07N110W to beyond 06N140W. A cluster of

moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N

between 109W and 112W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Gale conditions will continue in the Tehuantepec region through

tonight. Please, refer to the Special Features section above for

details. 



A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California

with a 1022 mb high pressure located near 27N116W. This is 

supporting light to gentle winds, with moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft

in NW swell, highest N of Punta Eugenia. In the Gulf of 

California, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail with seas of 3 ft

or less. Fresh winds are near Cabo Corrientes while gale 

conditions and rough seas continue in the Tehuantepec region. 

Long period NW swell continue to propagate across the majority of

the offshore Mexican waters.



For the forecast, northerly winds funneling through the Chivela 

Pass will continue to support gale-force northerly winds in the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec region through tonight. Peak seas during this

period will be around 12 ft. Winds will quickly diminish below 

gale-force early on Fri as return flow establishes across the 

western Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, a second and stronger gap 

wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec area by Sun night. A 

ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja 

California producing gentle to moderate Nw to N winds. Looking 

ahead, expect moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas in the

central and southern Gulf of California Sat night through Mon as

the pressure gradient tightens there. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Strong NE to E winds and rough seas are ongoing in the Gulf of 

Papagayo and downwind to near 08N92W. In the Gulf of Panama, 

winds are moderate to fresh from the N and seas are 4 to 5 ft. 

Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in mixed SW and

NW swell are elsewhere. 



For the forecast, strong NE to E winds and rough seas will

persist in the Papagayo region through Fri night, then mainly

moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail through

Mon night. A stronger gap wind event is expected in the Papagayo

area by Tue. Pulsing fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama will 

diminish to moderate speeds today and to light to gentle speeds 

over the weekend. Otherwise, light to gentle southerly winds 

between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands will reach moderate 

speeds Sat night into Mon. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A high pressure of 1028 mb located N of area extends a ridge 

across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. Gentle 

to moderate winds are under the influence of the ridge. NW swell

continue to support 8 to 9 ft seas N of 15N W of 132W. Far SW 

from the SW Mexican offshore waters, an area of fresh NE to E 

winds and rough seas to 9 ft is present from 05N-15N and between 

107W and 123W. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate and seas 

are moderate. 



For the forecast, a surface ridge will dominate the subtropical 

waters through the middle of next week. Northerly swell to the 

west of the surface trough will gradually subside before decaying

later this morning. Otherwise, a surface trough will develop 

over the tropical waters near 115W-116W today and then propagate 

westward along with continued fresh to locally strong winds, and 

rough seas to 10 ft through Mon night.



$$

GR