****0000007052****
AXPZ20 KNHC 162124

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Thu Jan 16 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2100 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES....



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong to gale-force northerly

winds are blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to

about 14N as high pressure surges southward along the eastern 

slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico in the wake of a 

cold front moving across the Bay of Campeche. Peak seas are around

12 ft. Winds will quickly diminish below gale-force early on Fri

as return flow establishes across the western Gulf of Mexico. 

Looking ahead, a second and stronger gap wind event is expected 

in the Tehuantepec area by Sun night. N winds will rapidly 

increase to gale force by early Mon morning, with seas building 

to around 12 ft. Then, winds will further increase to 40 kt by 

early Mon afternoon, with seas building to around 15 ft. Gusty 

winds to minimal storm force may occur. Seas generated from this 

event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 

8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 09N by Tue morning. Late

on Tue, a very strong ridge is forecast to develop along the

eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, probably

bringing another round of strong gale force winds and very rough

seas Tue night into Wed. Marine interests transiting across the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week should be aware of this gap 

wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid hazardous 

marine conditions over the affected waters. 



Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs

in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in 

late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may 

occur as early as September, and as late as May. The monthly 

distribution of Tehuantepec events shows that the largest number 

of gale force events occurs in December. Storm-force events occur

most often in January. 



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N95W. The ITCZ 

continues from 06N95W to 06N110W to beyond 08N140W. A cluster of

moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N 

between 109W and 112W. A surface trough is analyzed just ahead of

this convective activity. Its axis is along 112W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Gale conditions will continue in the Tehuantepec region through

tonight. Please, refer to the Special Features section above for

details. Another gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec 

area by Sun night. 



A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California

supporting light to gentle winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle

to moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas.

Seas are 4 to 7 ft in NW swell, highest N of Punta Eugenia. In 

the Gulf of California, mainly light to gentle winds and seas of

1 to 3 prevail in the north and central parts of the Gulf while 

moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft 

are observed across the southern part of the Gulf and beyond the

entrance to the Gulf to about 22N, including the San Jose del 

Cabo area. Moderate to fresh winds are near Cabo Corrientes 

while gale conditions and rough seas continue in the Tehuantepec 

region. Long period NW swell continue to propagate across the 

majority of the Mexican offshore waters.



For the forecast, aside from the marine conditions in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore 

waters of Baja California through the upcoming weekend producing 

mainly gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas. As high 

pressure to the W  some on Sun, moderate to locally fresh winds 

are expected. Seas will build to 8 ft N of Punta Eugenia by early

Mon morning as another NW swell event reaches the region. In the

Gulf of California, expect moderate to fresh NW winds and 

moderate seas in the central and southern parts of the Gulf Sat 

night through Mon as the pressure gradient tightens there. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas are ongoing 

in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 08N88W. In the Gulf

of Panama, moderate to fresh N winds are noted with seas of 3 to

5 ft S of 08N. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas

in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to 

rough seas will persist in the Papagayo region through Sat, then

mainly moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail 

through Mon night. A stronger gap wind event is expected in the 

Papagayo area by Tue night as a strong high pressure builds N of

area. Moderate N winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama 

tonight and Fri, diminishing to light to gentle speeds over the 

weekend. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are

expected. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



High pressure of 1029 mb is located N of area near 35N135W. Its

associated ridge covers the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W 

of 110W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are N of the ITCZ to 

about 15N between 110W and 128W based on scatterometer data. 

Similar wind speeds are also noted from 14N to 20N W of 135W. 

Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere under the influence of the

ridge. NW swell continues to propagate across the majority of the

forecast waters, supporting seas of 6 to 8 ft across most of

waters W of 110W. A surface trough is within the ITCZ with axis 

along 122W. Fresh to locally strong winds are related to this

trough that is producing a cluster of moderate to isolated strong

convection. 



For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough will move 

westward over the next 24 to 72 hours. An area of fresh to strong

winds and rough seas will move in tandem with this trough due to

the pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure to 

the N. In addition, the pressure gradient between the high 

pressure and another surface trough approaching from the W will 

bring fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas of 8 to 10 

ft across the waters N of 20N and W of 135W over the far NW 

waters by Sat evening. 



$$

GR