****0000006534****
AXPZ20 KNHC 170319

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Fri Jan 17 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0300 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES....



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong to gale-force northerly

winds are blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to

about 14N as high pressure surges southward along the eastern 

slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico in the wake of a 

cold front moving across the Bay of Campeche. Peak seas are around

12 ft. Winds will quickly diminish below gale-force overnight Thu

night into Fri morning as return flow establishes across the 

western Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, a second and stronger gap 

wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec area by Sun night. N 

winds will rapidly increase to gale force by early Mon morning, 

with seas building to around 12 ft. Then, winds will further 

increase to 40 kt by early Mon afternoon, with seas building to 

around 15 ft. Gusty winds to minimal storm force may occur. Seas 

generated from this event will spread well away from the 

Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south

as 09N by Tue morning. Late on Tue, a very strong ridge is 

forecast to develop along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 

Mountains in Mexico, probably bringing another round of strong 

gale force winds and very rough seas Tue night into Wed. Marine 

interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next 

week should be aware of this gap wind event, and take the 

necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the 

affected waters. 



Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs

in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in 

late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may 

occur as early as September, and as late as May. The monthly 

distribution of Tehuantepec events shows that the largest number 

of gale force events occurs in December. Storm-force events occur

most often in January. 



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 04N95W. The ITCZ 

extends from 04N95W to 07N110W to 05N110W to beyond 08N140W. No

significant convection is evident along the monsoon trough or

ITCZ at this time.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Gale conditions will continue in the Tehuantepec region through

tonight. Please refer to the Special Features section above for 

details. Another gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec 

area by Sun night, with strong gales possible by Tue night. 



A weak 1019 mb low pressure is centered about 240 nm W-SW of 

Punta Eugenia. This is breaking up the subtropical ridge across

the region, resulting in mostly gentle breezes off Baja

California and most of the Gulf of California. Wave heights are 4

to 6 ft offshore, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Gentle

breezes and slight seas are evident elsewhere across Mexican

offshore waters.



For the forecast, the ongoing gale force wind across the Gulf of

Tehuantepec will diminish through Fri morning, although rough

seas will persist downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through

Fri afternoon. Farther north, a ridge will continue to dominate 

the offshore waters of Baja California through the upcoming 

weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate winds with moderate 

seas through Sat. NW swell will move into the waters off Baja 

California Norte Sun and Mon. Gentle to moderate breezes and 

slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, a

second and stronger gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec

area by Sun night, as a cold front moves across the western Gulf

of Mexico. Strong high pressure building behind the front may

support strong gales by mid week over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas are ongoing 

in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 08N90W. In the Gulf

of Panama, moderate to fresh N winds are noted with seas of 3 to

5 ft S of 08N. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas

in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to 

rough seas will persist in the Papagayo region through Sat, then 

mainly moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail 

through Mon night. A stronger gap wind event is expected in the 

Papagayo area by Tue night as a strong high pressure builds north

of area. Moderate north winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama

tonight and Fri, diminishing to light to gentle breezes over the

weekend. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes and moderate seas 

are expected.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



High pressure of 1026 mb is located north of area near 34N135W. 

Its associated ridge covers the forecast waters north of the 

ITCZ and west of 110W. A trough extends from the weak 1019 mb low

pressure near 26N118W to 12N113W. The pattern is supporting

mostly gentle to moderate winds across the basin. Wave heights

are 7 to 9 ft north of ITCZ between 110W and 130W, with a 

component of NW swell. Moderate combined seas are noted

elsewhere.



For the forecast, the surface trough will persist over the deep

tropics and move westward over the next 24 to 72 hours. An area 

of fresh to strong winds and rough seas will move in tandem with 

this trough due to the pressure gradient between the trough and 

high pressure to the north. In addition, the pressure gradient 

between the high pressure and another surface trough approaching 

from the west will bring fresh to strong E to SE winds and 

building seas of 8 to 10 ft across the waters north of 20N and

west of 135W by Sat evening. 



$$

Christensen