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AXPZ20 KNHC 170814

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Fri Jan 17 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0810 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 05N95W. The ITCZ 

extends from 05N95W to 06N125W, and from 07N130W to 05N140W. No 

significant convection is evident along the monsoon trough or 

ITCZ at this time.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A scatterometer satellite pass from around 04 UTC confirmed winds

to minimal gale force persisted at that time across the Gulf of

Tehuantepec, associated with a cold front moving through southern

Mexico. High pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico following

the front is weakening and shifting eastward, allowing these

winds to diminish, and they are expected to be below gale force

early this morning. Farther north, a weak 1020 mb low is centered

off Baja California, W-SW of Punta Eugenia. Scatterometer 

satellite imagery also showed fresh winds across the southern 

Gulf of California. This is on the eastern periphery of a ridge 

extending from high pressure centered off southern California 

southwestward toward Cabo San Lucas. Gentle breezes and slight to

moderate seas are noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, as described above, near-gale force winds 

across the Gulf of Tehuantepec are diminishing this morning as 

high pressure north of the region weakens and shifts eastward. 

Associated rough seas extending up to 300 nm downstream of 

Tehuantepec will subside through this afternoon. Farther north, 

weak high pressure off Baja California is support moderate to 

fresh NW winds near the entrance to the Gulf of California 

through this evening. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to 

moderate seas will persist elsewhere through Sat. NW swell will 

move into the waters off Baja California Norte Sun and Mon. 

Looking ahead, a second and stronger gap wind event is expected 

in the Tehuantepec area by Sun night, as a cold front moves 

across the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong high pressure building 

behind the front may support strong gales by mid week over the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong E

gap winds off of the Gulf of Papagayo. Wave heights of 5 to 7 ft

are associated with these winds, reaching up to 240 nm offshore.

In the Gulf of Panama, moderate to fresh N winds are noted with 

seas of 3 to 5 ft S of 08N. Light to gentle winds and slight to 

moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to 

rough seas will persist in the Papagayo region through Sat, then 

mainly moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail 

through Mon night. A stronger gap wind event is expected in the 

Papagayo area by Tue night as a strong high pressure builds north

of area. Moderate north winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama

tonight and Fri, diminishing to light to gentle breezes over the

weekend. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes and moderate seas 

are expected.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



1027 mb high pressure is centered north of area near 34N135W.

Weak 1020 mb low pressure near 26N118W is disrupting the 

subtropical ridge a bit, resulting in generally moderate winds 

across the basin west of 110W, except for 20 kt winds near a 

trough along the ITCZ at 115W and another trough near 16N128W. NW

swell is helping to support combined seas of 6 to 8 ft in the 

trade wind area from 05N to 20N west of 110W, and 5 to 6 ft 

elsewhere. Wave heights are 5 to 7 ft east of 110W, in a mix of 

NW and SW swell, along with shorter- period NE swell from the gap

wind areas from 05N to 12N. 



For the forecast, the surface trough along the ITCZ near 115W will

move westward over the next couple of days. An area of fresh to 

strong winds and rough seas will move in tandem with this trough 

due to the pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure

to the north. In addition, the pressure gradient between the 

high pressure and another surface trough approaching from the 

west will bring fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas 

of 8 to 10 ft across the waters north of 20N and west of 135W by 

Sat evening. 



$$

Christensen