****0000005107****
AXPZ20 KNHC 170908

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Mon Feb 17 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery

through 0900 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURE...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure is building

behind a cold front moving through the western Gulf of America.

This pattern will support gap winds to gale force across the Gulf

of Tehuantepec today, accompanied by rough seas. Winds and seas

will diminish tonight as the high pressure weakens and shifts

eastward.



For details, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and 

Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center

at the websites: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N95W and to 04N115W.

The ITCZ extends from 04N115W to 06N125W to beyond 02N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 08N between

80W and 85W, from 08N to 10N between 94W and 97W, from 04N to 07N 

between 112W and 116W, and from 07N to 10N between 125W and 127W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section concerning the gale

warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



Aside from fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec,

recent scatterometer passes indicated mostly gentle breezes  

across the Mexican offshore waters. Large NW swell lingers south

of Cabo San Lucas this morning, near the Revillagigedo Islands.

Elsewhere, seas are 5 to 7 ft off Baja California, 3 to 5 ft off

southern Mexico, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. A few

showers and thunderstorms are active about 120 nm off the coast

of the Mexican state of Guerrero. 



For the forecast, the large NW swell near the Revillagigedo Islands 

will continue to subside this morning. A weak cold front will 

move into Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of 

California later today, then dissipate tonight. Another round of 

large NW swell will follow the front late today into Wed off Baja

California, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro. Looking ahead, 

expect another pulse of gap winds possibly to minimal gale force 

across Tehuantepec Thu.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active along the

monsoon trough off the Pacific coast of Panama. A few showers and

thunderstorms are also active off Guatemala. Moderate to fresh 

easterly trade winds are evident in the Gulf of Papagayo, 

spreading downstream to 95W based on earlier satellite- derived 

wind data. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate 

or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain

moderate to fresh NE-E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo through

the forecast period, pulsing to fresh to strong tonight and Tue

night. Moderate seas may accompany these winds. Otherwise, 

gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail

across the waters offshore of Central and South America into 

early next week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong gap winds will

return to the Gulf of Papagayo Fri and Fri night.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A 1024 mb high pressure system near 30N132W is weakening ahead of

a cold front approaching from the west. Large NW swell, ranging

from 8 to 12 ft, accompanies the front, covering much of the 

area north of 18N and west of 130W. Previous NW swell of 7 to 8

ft lingers from 05N to 20N between 105W and 120W, mixed with a

component of shorter period NE seas attributed to moderate to

occasionally fresh trade wind flow. Gentle breezes and moderate

seas persist elsewhere. 



For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it moves 

eastward across the waters north of 25N into Baja California. 

Large NW swell will accompany the front over the waters north of

20N. A second front will follow, moving east of 140W by Tue 

night, then moving into southern California and northern Baja 

California Norte by mid week, leaving a trailing stationary front

along roughly 27N. A third round of NW swell will follow this 

front across waters west of 130W. In addition, high pressure 

building in the wake of the front will support a broad area of 

fresh trade winds from 05N to 20N west of 125W. The NW swell will

mix with the shorter period NE seas associated with the trade 

wind flow. Gentle breezes and moderate seas will continue 

elsewhere.



$$

Christensen