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AXPZ20 KNHC 171552

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Fri Jan 17 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to  

03N90W. The ITCZ continues from 03N90W to 06N114W, and from 

05N122W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection can be

found from 05N to 09N between 120W and 131W. A surface trough is

within the ITCZ near 117W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Winds have diminished below gale force in the Gulf of Tehuantepec

as high pressure over the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre

Mountains in Mexico weakens and shifts eastward. Currently, 

fresh to strong winds are noted across the Tehuantepec region 

with seas of 8 to 10 ft. High pressure of 1028 mb located N of 

area near 34N135W extends a ridge SE covering the offshore 

forecast waters of Baja California. This system supports light to

gentle winds. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in Nw swell. In the Gulf of 

California, scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate S 

winds in the northern part of the Gulf, and moderate to fresh NW 

winds in the southern part of the Gulf and beyond the entrance to

the Gulf to about 22N, including the San Jose del Cabo area. 

Long period NW swell continues to propagate across the majority 

of the Mexican offshore waters with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range.



For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore 

waters of Baja California through the upcoming weekend producing 

mainly gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas. As high 

pressure to the W strengthens some on Sun, moderate to locally 

fresh winds are expected. Seas will build to 8 ft N of Punta 

Eugenia by early Mon morning as another NW swell event reaches 

the region. In the Gulf of California, expect moderate to fresh 

NW winds and moderate seas in the central and southern parts of 

the Gulf Sat night through Mon as the pressure gradient tightens 

there. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will 

persist elsewhere through Sat. NW swell will move into the waters

off Baja California Norte Sun and Mon. Looking ahead, a second 

and stronger gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec area 

by Sun night, as a cold front moves across the western Gulf of 

Mexico. Strong high pressure building behind the front may 

support strong gales by mid week over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



The most recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to 

strong NE to E gap winds off of the Gulf of Papagayo. Wave 

heights of 5 to 8 ft are associated with these winds, reaching 

up to 180 nm offshore. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate to fresh 

N winds are noted with seas of 3 to 5 ft S of 08N. Light to 

gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell

are elsewhere. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to 

rough seas will persist in the Papagayo region through Sat, then 

mainly moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail 

through Mon night. A stronger gap wind event is forecast in the 

Papagayo area by Tue night as a strong high pressure builds north

of area. Moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama

today, diminishing to light to gentle breezes over the weekend. 

Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes and moderate seas are expected.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A 1028 mb high pressure is centered north of area near 34N135W. 

Moderate winds are generally noted across the basin west of 

110W, except for 20 kt winds near a trough along the ITCZ at

117W. NW swell continues to propagate across the majority of the

forecast waters, supporting seas of 6 to 8 ft across most of

waters W of 110W. A surface trough is within the ITCZ with axis 

along 117W. Fresh to locally strong winds are related to this 

trough that is producing scattered moderate convection. 

convection. 



For the forecast, the surface trough along the ITCZ near 117W 

will move westward over the next couple of days. An area of fresh

to strong winds and rough seas will move in tandem with this 

trough due to the pressure gradient between the trough and high 

pressure to the north. In addition, the pressure gradient between

the high pressure and another surface trough approaching from 

the west will bring fresh to strong E to SE winds and building 

seas of 8 to 10 ft across the waters north of 20N and west of 

135W by Sat evening. 



$$

GR