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AXPZ20 KNHC 172122

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Fri Jan 17 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2100 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to  

03N91W. The ITCZ continues from 03N91W to 07N106W to 07N118W, 

and from 06N126W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection

can be found from 05N to 08N between 118W and 134W. A surface 

trough is within the ITCZ near 122W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Recent scatterometer data show mainly fresh N winds across the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N. A ridge dominates 

the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. This system 

supports light to gentle winds. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. 

In the Gulf of California, scatterometer data indicate gentle to 

moderate SW to W winds near 30N, and moderate to locally fresh 

NW winds in the southern part of the Gulf and beyond the entrance

to the Gulf to about 22N, including Los Cabos area. Light winds

dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas 

of 4 to 6 ft in NW swell.



For the forecast, attention remains focused in the next gap wind

events in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The first one is expected to 

begin late on Sun. Wind are forecast to suddenly increase to 35 

to 40 kt, with seas building to 10 to 14 ft by Sun night. Gale 

conditions and rough seas are expected to persist through late 

Mon. A very strong ridge building across the eastern slopes of 

the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico behind another cold front 

will support the second Tehuantepec event by Tue night. Again, 

winds are forecast to rapidly increase to strong gale force 

speeds, with seas building up to 14 of 15 ft. There is a 

possibility that winds may reach storm force by Wed morning, with

seas building to 21 or 22 ft. The situation will be monitored 

over the next few days, and a Storm Warning may be required.

Mariners planning to navigate across or near the Gulf of

Tehuantepec by mid-week should keep aware of this developing 

forecast.



Elsewhere, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters 

of Baja California this weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate

winds with moderate seas. Another set of long period NW swell

will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia early Mon morning

building seas to 8 ft there. In the Gulf of California, expect 

fresh to locally strong NW winds Mon night through early Wed as  

strong high pressure settles over the Great Basin of the United

States. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 

will persist elsewhere through at least Sun.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Recent scatterometer satellite pass confirms the presence of 

fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds off of the Gulf of 

Papagayo and downwind to about 87W. Wave heights of 5 to 8 ft are

associated with these winds. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate N 

winds are noted with seas of 3 to 5 ft S of 08N. Light to gentle 

winds and slight to moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are 

seen elsewhere. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will

prevail in the Papagayo region over the next several days. The

next gap wind event is forecast in the Papagayo area by Wed 

night as a strong high pressure builds north of area. Light to 

gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Seas generated by strong gale force winds in the Tehuantepec 

area will propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and 

El Salvador Mon and Mon night, then again Wed and Wed night.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A 1032 mb high pressure is centered north of area near 34N135W.

Its associated ridge dominates most of the waters N of the ITCZ

and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower

pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, including also a surface 

trough near 122W supports an area of fresh to strong winds just N

of the ITCZ to about 16N and W of 117W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft 

within these winds. NW swell continues to propagate across the 

majority of the forecast waters, producing seas of 6 to 8 ft 

across most of waters W of 110W. 



For the forecast, the surface trough along the ITCZ near 122W 

will move westward over the next couple of days. An area of fresh

to strong winds and rough seas will move in tandem with this 

trough due to the pressure gradient between the trough and high 

pressure to the north. In addition, the pressure gradient between

the high pressure and another surface trough approaching from 

the west will bring fresh to strong E to SE winds and building 

seas of 8 to 11 ft across the waters north of 20N and west of 

135W by Sun. 



$$

GR