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AXPZ20 KNHC 182128

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Sat Jan 18 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2100 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURE...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will build

over northeastern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico late Sun

following the passage of cold front across the region. This

pattern will support strong to gale force gap winds across the

Tehuantepec Sun night into Mon, and subsequently rough to very 

rough seas downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon 

evening. These winds and seas will diminish through early Tue as 

the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward ahead of the next 

front moving into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. An even stronger 

area of high pressure will build over northeast Mexico and the 

western Gulf, supporting strong gales or even storm force winds 

across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week, accompanied by a

broad area of rough to very rough seas downstream.



Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs

in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in 

late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may 

occur as early as September, and as late as May. The monthly 

distribution of Tehuantepec events shows that the largest number 

of gale force events occurs in December. Storm-force events occur

most often in January. 



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from southern Costa Rica near 09N83W 

to 05N91W. The ITCZ continues from 05N91W to 04N110W to 08N130W

to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 

07N to 10N between 122W and 133W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A ridge extends SE from 1027 mb high pressure located near 

33N134W to beyond Cabo Corrientes. This pattern is supporting 

moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds across the offshore 

waters of Baja California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft within these winds.

Light and variable winds are noted across the north and central 

parts of the Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate NW 

winds dominate the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are of 1 to 3 ft.

Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen across

the offshore waters of Jalisco and Colima. Gentle to moderate W 

to NW winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore 

waters where seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range.



For the forecast, the main forecast issue will be a pair of 

successive cold fronts moving through the western Gulf of Mexico 

and southern Mexico, supporting gale force gap winds across the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night, with strong gales possible Tue 

night through mid week. This pattern will also support rough to 

very rough seas downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec off eastern

Oaxaca and Chiapas. The situation will be monitored over the 

next few days, and a Storm Warning may be required for mid week. 

Elsewhere, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters 

of Baja California this weekend producing mainly gentle to 

moderate winds with moderate seas. Long period NW swell will 

reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia Sun night into early Mon 

morning building seas to 8 ft there. In the Gulf of California, 

expect fresh to locally strong NW winds Mon night through at

least Wed as strong high pressure settles over the Great Basin 

of the United States. Winds may reach minimal gale force over

the northern part of the Gulf by Tue morning. Gentle to moderate

winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere through

early next week. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate NE across

the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate N winds are in the Gulf

of Panama and downstream of the Azuero Peninsula to about 05N.

Similar wind speeds from the S are in the offshore waters of

Ecuador. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, except to 6 ft over the Gulf of 

Papagayo.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate seas will 

prevail in the Papagayo region tonight and again on Mon. The 

next gap wind event is forecast in the Papagayo area by Wed night

as a strong high pressure builds north of area. Light to gentle 

winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Seas 

generated by strong gale force winds in the Tehuantepec area will

propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador

Mon and Mon night, then again Wed and Wed night. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A 1027 mb high pressure is centered north of area near 33N134W. 

Its associated ridge dominates most of the waters north of the 

ITCZ and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the high

pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 

supporting fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 11 ft from 09N to 

16N between 115W and 135W. Satellite derived wind data captured 

these winds. In addition, the pressure gradient between the 

ridge and a low pressure system located W of forecast region is 

producing an area of fresh to strong SE winds N of 20N and W of 

135W with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 

moderate seas persist elsewhere.



For the forecast, the area of fresh to strong trade winds and 

rough seas around the southern periphery of the ridge will 

persist over the next 24 to 48 hours. The pressure gradient 

between the high pressure and the surface trough approaching from

the west will continue to bring fresh to strong E to SE winds 

and rough seas mainly across the waters N of 20N and W of 135W 

over the next couple of days. Another set of long period NW 

swell has reached the NW corner of the forecast area. This swell

event will propagate most of the waters W of 120W on Sun.



$$

GR