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AXPZ20 KNHC 190328

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Sun Jan 19 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0300 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURE...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will build

over northeastern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico late Sun

following the passage of cold front across the region. This

pattern will support strong to gale force gap winds across the

Tehuantepec Sun night into Mon, and subsequently rough to very 

rough seas downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon 

evening. These winds and seas will diminish through early Tue as 

the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward ahead of the next 

front moving into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. An even stronger 

area of high pressure will build over northeast Mexico and the 

western Gulf, supporting strong gales or even storm force winds 

across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week, accompanied by a

broad area of rough to very rough seas downstream.



Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs

in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in 

late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may 

occur as early as September, and as late as May. The monthly 

distribution of Tehuantepec events shows that the largest number 

of gale force events occurs in December. Storm-force events occur

most often in January. 



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from southern Costa Rica near 10N85W 

to 06N90W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 03N105W

to 09N128W, and from 09N135W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered 

moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 126W and 

129W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Feature section for information concerning

gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



A ridge extends SE from 1025 mb high pressure located near 

32N136W to near Socorro Island. This pattern is supporting 

moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds across the offshore 

waters of Baja California, and locally strong NW winds off Cabo

Corrientes. Seas are 4 to 6 ft within these winds. Light and 

variable winds are noted across the north and central parts of 

the Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate NW winds 

dominate the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are of 1 to 3 ft. 

Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen across 

the offshore waters of Jalisco and Colima off Cabo Corrientes. 

Gentle to moderate W to NW winds prevail across the remainder of 

the Mexican offshore waters where seas are in the 3 to 5 ft 

range.



For the forecast, in addition to the situation in the Gulf of

Tehuantepec discussed in the Special Features section, high 

pressure building over the Great Basin will support fresh to 

strong NW winds over the Gulf of California Mon night through mid

week, with gale force winds possible Tue morning. Elsewhere, a 

ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters of Baja 

California this weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate winds

with moderate seas. Long period NW swell will reach the waters 

north of Punta Eugenia Sun night into early Mon morning building 

seas to 8 ft there. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to 

moderate seas will persist elsewhere through early next week. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh

N winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate breezes

persist elsewhere from Ecuador to off Central America. Seas are 

2 to 4 ft, except to 6 ft over the Gulf of Papagayo.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate seas will 

prevail in the Papagayo region tonight and again on Mon. The 

next gap wind event is forecast in the Papagayo area by Wed night

as a strong high pressure builds north of area. Light to gentle 

winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Seas 

generated by strong gale force winds in the Tehuantepec area will

propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador

Mon and Mon night, then again Wed and Wed night. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



1025 mb high pressure is centered north of area near 32N136W. Its

associated ridge dominates most of the waters north of the ITCZ 

and west of 110W. Farther south, a surface trough breaks up the 

ITCZ between 130W and 135W. The pressure gradient between the 

high pressure and and the trough is supporting fresh to strong 

NE winds and 8 to 11 ft from 07N to 20N between 115W and 135W.  

In addition, the pressure gradient between the ridge and a low 

pressure system located near 28N145W is producing an area of 

fresh to strong SE winds north of 20N and west of 135W with seas

of 8 to 11 ft with NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 

moderate seas persist elsewhere.



For the forecast, the area of fresh to strong trade winds and 

rough seas around the southern periphery of the ridge will 

persist over the next 24 to 48 hours. The pressure gradient 

between the high pressure and the surface trough approaching from

the west will continue to bring fresh to strong E to SE winds 

and rough seas mainly across the waters north of 20N and west of

135W over the next couple of days. Another set of long period NW

swell has reached the NW corner of the forecast area. This swell

event will propagate most of the waters west of 120W on Sun.



$$

Christensen