****0000007247****
AXPZ20 KNHC 192140

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Sun Jan 19 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2100 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure is building

across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains, and the

western Gulf in the wake of a strong cold front currently moving

across the SW Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will support strong 

to gale force gap winds across the Tehuantepec this evening into

Mon, and subsequently rough to very rough seas downstream of the

Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon evening. These winds and seas 

will diminish through early Tue as the high pressure weakens and 

shifts eastward ahead of another strong cold front moving into 

the northwest Gulf of Mexico. A stronger area of high pressure 

will build over northeast Mexico and the western Gulf, supporting

strong gale force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec

Tue evening through Wed evening. Winds are forecast to suddenly

increase to 45 kt by Tue night, with seas building to around 16 

ft. Gusty winds to storm force are expected. A broad area of 

rough to very rough seas will accompany this strong gap wind 

event, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 06N by 

early Thu morning. Marine interests transiting across or in the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue evening into Wed should be aware of this 

upcoming gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid 

this hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters.



Of note: The monthly distribution of Tehuantepec events shows 

that the largest number of gale force events occurs in December. 

Storm- force events occur most often in January. 



Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over the

Great Basin of the United States will support minimal gale force

NW to N winds over the northern Gulf of California with seas 

building to 10 ft Mon night and Tue. At the same time, fresh to 

strong NW to N winds will dominate the remainder of the Gulf 

region, with seas of 8 to 9 ft. In addition, these strong winds 

are forecast to funnel through the gaps in the northern Baja 

California Peninsula into the Pacific Ocean building seas to 9 ft

N of Punta Eugenia on Tue.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W 

to 05N95W. The ITCZ continues from 05N95W to 06N130W. W of 130W,

a surface trough is analyzed and extends from 16N136W to 12N136W

to 09N138W. Scattered moderate convection is near the northmen 

end of the trough, particularly from 12N to 16N and E of trough 

axis to about 133W. Elsewhere, convection is limited.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information 

concerning gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and in 

the northern Gulf of California.



A ridge extends southeastward from a 1029 mb high pressure

located near 32N126W to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. This 

pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds 

across the offshore waters of Baja California, and fresh to 

strong NW winds off Cabo Corrientes, as noted in a recent 

scatterometer satellite data. Seas are 4 to 6 ft within these 

winds, except 5 to 7 ft downstream of cabo Corrientes. Moderate 

to fresh NW winds are noted across the central and southern 

parts of the Gulf of California, while mainly light winds prevail

over the northern part of the Gulf. Seas are of 3 to 5 ft with

the strongest winds, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. Light and variable

winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore 

waters where seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range in Nw swell.



For the forecast, gale force winds are expected in the Gulf of

Tehuantepec, and in the Gulf of California. Please, refer to the

Special Features section for a detailed information about the 

forecast. Elsewhere, a ridge will continue to dominate the 

offshore waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally

fresh winds with moderate seas through mid-week. Long period NW 

swell will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia tonight into 

early Mon morning building seas to 8 ft there. Gentle to moderate

winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere through

mid-week. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Recent scatterometer data provide observations of moderate winds

across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 89W. Light to

gentle winds are noted N of 04N or N of the monsoon trough while

gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail S of the monsoon 

trough, including the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 

Islands. Seas are 2 to 4 ft N of 04N, except to 6 ft in the Gulf

of Papagayo, and 3 to 5 ft S of 04N. 



For the forecast, fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail in 

the Papagayo region, with fresh to strong gap wind pulses mainly

at night through mid week. Light to gentle winds and slight to 

moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Seas generated by strong 

gale force winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across 

the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Mon and Mon 

night, then again Wed through Thu. Seas are forecast to peak 12

to 14 ft in NW swell Wed and Wed night.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



High pressure dominates the waters north of 15N and west of 

110W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and low

pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to 

strong NE winds and 8 to 10 ft from 12N to 18N between 120W and 

135W. In addition, the pressure gradient between the ridge and a 

low pressure system located W of area is producing an area of 

fresh to strong SE winds north of 20N and west of 135W with seas

of 8 to 11 ft with NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 

moderate seas persist elsewhere.



For the forecast, the fresh to strong SE winds between a deepening

low pressure to the west and the ridge to the northeast will 

continue to affect the NW waters through Tue. Large NW swell 

will continue to propagate into the waters west of 130W, and mix 

with shorter period seas associated with the trade wind flow over

the deep tropics. Altogether, expect 8 to 12 ft seas across much

of the area west of 125W through the early part of the week. 

These wave heights will subside to 8 to 9 ft, and diminish in 

areal extent through mid week. Moderate winds and seas will 

persist elsewhere.



$$

GR