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AXPZ20 KNHC 200300

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Mon Jan 20 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0305 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong ridge over NE Mexico

supports strong to gale-force N winds across the Gulf of

Tehuantepec. Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft Mon morning. These

weather conditions will persist through Mon evening. Winds and 

seas will diminish through early Tue as the high pressure weakens

and shifts eastward ahead of another strong cold front moving 

into the NW Gulf of Mexico. A stronger area of high pressure 

will build over NE Mexico and the western Gulf, supporting strong

gale force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue 

evening through Wed evening. Winds are forecast to suddenly 

increase to 45 kt by Tue night, with seas building to around 16 

ft. Gusty winds to storm force are expected. A broad area of 

rough to very rough seas will accompany this strong gap wind 

event, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 06N by 

early Thu morning. Marine interests transiting across or in the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue evening into Wed should be aware of this 

upcoming gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid 

this hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters.



Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over the

Great Basin of the United States will support minimal gale force

NW to N winds over the northern Gulf of California with seas 

building to 10 ft Mon night and Tue. At the same time, fresh to 

strong NW to N winds will dominate the remainder of the Gulf 

region, with seas of 8 to 10 ft. In addition, these strong winds

are forecast to funnel through the gaps in the northern Baja 

California Peninsula into the Pacific Ocean building seas to 11 

ft N of Punta Eugenia on Tue.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from southern Costa Rica near 08N84W 

to 04N100W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N100W to 05N120W and to

09N136W. Surface trough is analyzed from 15N134W to 07N141W.

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N and west

of 130W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information 

concerning gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and in 

the northern Gulf of California.



A 1024 mb high pressure system positioned near 27N124W extends

southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient

between this ridge and lower pressures in central Mexico support

moderate to fresh NW-N winds across the offshore waters of Baja

California. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh

northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are present in the central and

southern Gulf of California waters, while light to gentle winds

and slight seas are found in the northern gulf waters.



Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are also

occurring in the offshore waters of SW Mexico, especially west of

105W. Elsewhere, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to

gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, gale force winds are expected in the Gulf of

Tehuantepec, and in the Gulf of California. Please, refer to the

Special Features section for a detailed information about the 

forecast. Elsewhere, a ridge will continue to dominate the 

offshore waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally

fresh winds with moderate seas through mid-week. Long period NW 

swell will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia tonight into 

early Mon morning building seas to 8 ft there. Gentle to moderate

winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere through

mid-week. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure north of the Caribbean supports moderate to 

locally fresh easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo.

Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Moderate to locally fresh

southerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are present south of the

monsoon trough, especially south of 04N. Elsewhere, moderate or

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail in 

the Papagayo region, with fresh to strong gap wind pulses mainly

at night through mid week. Light to gentle winds and slight to 

moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Seas generated by strong 

gale force winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across 

the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Mon and Mon 

night, then again Wed through Thu. Seas are forecast to peak 12

to 14 ft in NW swell Wed and Wed night.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A 1012 mb low pressure system near 28N143W is producing scattered

showers over the NW waters of the basin. The pressure gradient

between this low and a strong ridge north of the area sustain

fresh to strong SE winds north of 23N and west of 133W. Seas in

these waters are 9-13 ft. Moderate to locally strong easterly

trade winds and moderate seas are evident south of 23N and west

of 110W. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and

moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, the fresh to strong SE winds between a deepening

low pressure to the west and the ridge to the northeast will 

continue to affect the NW waters through Tue. Large NW swell 

will continue to propagate into the waters west of 130W, and mix 

with shorter period seas associated with the trade wind flow over

the deep tropics. Altogether, expect 8 to 12 ft seas across much

of the area west of 125W through the early part of the week. 

These wave heights will subside to 8 to 9 ft, and diminish in 

areal extent through mid week. Moderate winds and seas will 

persist elsewhere.



$$

Delgado