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AXPZ20 KNHC 200825

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Mon Jan 20 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0755 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong ridge over NE Mexico

supports strong to gale-force N winds across the Gulf of

Tehuantepec. Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft Mon morning. These

weather conditions will persist through Mon night. Winds and 

seas will diminish through early Tue as the high pressure weakens

and shifts eastward ahead of another strong cold front moving 

into the NW Gulf of Mexico. A stronger area of high pressure will

build over NE Mexico and the western Gulf, supporting gale to

storm force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue 

evening through Wed night. Winds are forecast to suddenly 

increase to 50 kt by Tue night, with seas building to 18-20 ft by

Wed morning. A broad area of rough to very rough seas will 

accompany this strong gap wind event, with seas 8 ft or greater 

reaching as far south as 05N by early Thu morning. Marine 

interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue 

evening into Wed night should be aware of this upcoming gap wind

event, and take the necessary action to avoid this hazardous 

marine conditions over the affected waters.



Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over the

Great Basin of the United States will support minimal gale force

NW to N winds over the northern Gulf of California with seas 

building to 11 ft Mon night and Tue. At the same time, fresh to 

strong NW to N winds will dominate the remainder of the Gulf 

region, with seas of 8-10 ft. In addition, these strong winds are

forecast to funnel through the gaps in the northern Baja 

California Peninsula into the Pacific Ocean building seas to 11 

ft N of Punta Eugenia on Tue. Conditions will improve on Wed.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from the Panama/Colombia border near 

07N78W to 06N90W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N90W to 04N115W and 

to 09N137W. Surface trough is analyzed from 16N137W to 09N141W. 

Scattered moderate convection is present from 02N to 07N and east

of 98W and similar convection is evident from 10N to 16N and 

west of 130W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information 

concerning gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and in 

the northern Gulf of California.



A subtropical ridge located well west of Baja California Norte

continues to support moderate to fresh northerly winds across 

the offshore waters of Baja California. This was confirmed by a

recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 

5-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring northwest of Guadalupe 

Island. Primarily moderate northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft 

are present in the central and southern Gulf of California 

waters, while light to gentle winds and slight seas are found in 

the northern gulf waters.



Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are 

also occurring in the offshore waters of SW Mexico, especially 

west of 105W. Elsewhere, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 

light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, gale force winds are occurring in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, and forecast for the Gulf of California. Please, 

refer to the Special Features section for a detailed information 

about the forecast. Elsewhere, a ridge will continue to dominate 

the offshore waters of Baja California producing moderate to 

locally fresh winds with moderate seas through mid-week. Long 

period NW swell will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia 

tonight into early Mon morning building seas to 11 ft there. 

Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist

elsewhere through mid-week. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A robust high pressure north of the area forces fresh to locally

strong NE-E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, spreading 

downstream to 89W. This was depicted in a recent scatterometer 

satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Farther east, 

moderate northerly winds and slight seas are present in the Gulf 

of Panama. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds 

and seas of 4-6 ft are found south of the monsoon trough, 

especially south of 03N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 

slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will

continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of

Papagayo through at least late next week. Seas will build to 8-10

ft late in the week. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Seas generated by strong 

gale force winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across 

the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Mon and Mon 

night, then again Wed through Thu. Seas are forecast to peak

around 16 ft in NW swell Wed and Wed night.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A 1013 mb low pressure system centered just west of the far NW

waters continues to generate scattered showers north of 20N and

west of 135W. Fresh to strong E-SE winds are occurring north of

23N and west of 135W. Seas in these waters are 10-14 ft. The 

remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific is dominated by a broad

ridge north of the area. The pressure gradient between the ridge

and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to 

locally strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas south of 

23N and west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, the fresh to strong SE winds between a deepening

low pressure to the west and the ridge to the northeast will 

continue to affect the NW waters through late Tue. Large NW 

swell will continue to propagate into the waters west of 125W, 

and mix with shorter period seas associated with the trade wind 

flow over the deep tropics. Altogether, expect 8 to 12 ft seas 

across much of the area west of 125W through the early part of 

the week. These wave heights will subside to 8 to 9 ft, and 

diminish in areal extent through mid week. Moderate winds and 

seas will persist elsewhere. By midweek, strong NE-E winds and

moderate to rough seas will reach the eastern waters from the gap

wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



$$

Delgado