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AXPZ20 KNHC 202124

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Mon Jan 20 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2100 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: High pressure in the western

Gulf of Mexico currently inducing gale force winds and very rough

seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will slide east tonight, allow

winds early Tue to subside below gale force briefly before a

stronger high pressure surges south into northeastern Mexico,

leading to storm force gap winds developing Tue night in the

Tehuantepec region, with winds of 50 kt and seas to 25 ft into

Wed. Gales and very rough seas will prevail Wed night, before

conditions improve slightly Thu as the second high slides

eastward. Another high pressure will build southward rapidly

toward the end of the week, possibly bringing more gale

conditions. Marine interests transiting in or near the the Gulf

of Tehuantepec this week take the necessary action to avoid 

hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters.



Gulf of California Gale Warning: High pressure building into the

SW United States will support NW to N gales over the northern

Gulf of California with seas building to 11 ft late tonight into

Tue, along with fresh to strong winds over the remainder of the

gulf. In addition, strong winds are forecast to funnel through 

the gaps in the northern Baja California Peninsula into the 

Pacific Ocean building seas to 11 ft N of Punta Eugenia on Tue. 

Conditions will improve Tue night.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from the Panama/Colombia border near 

07N78W to 06N90W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N90W to 04N115W and 

to 09N140W. A surface trough that had been over the far western

portion of the area N of the ITCZ has dissipated. Scattered 

moderate convection is present from 02N to 07N and east of 98W 

and similar convection is evident from 10N to 16N and west of 

130W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information a Storm

Warning for the Tehuantepec Region and a Gale Warning for the

northern Gulf of California.



A subtropical ridge located well west of Baja California Norte

continues to support moderate to fresh northerly winds across 

the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in these waters are

5-8 ft. Mainly gentle N winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the

waters in the Gulf of California and elsewhere offshore Mexico.



For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore

waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh 

winds with moderate seas through mid-week. Gentle to moderate 

winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere through 

mid-week. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to locally 

strong NE-E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, spreading 

downstream to 89W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Meanwhile, 

moderate southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are found south of 

the monsoon trough, especially south of 03N. Elsewhere, gentle or

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will

continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of

Papagayo through at least late week. Seas there will build to 

8-10 ft late in the week. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Seas generated by storm 

force winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across the 

offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador periodically

through mid-week, with seas forecast to peak around 16 ft in NW 

swell Wed and Wed night.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Fresh to strong E-SE winds are occurring north of 27N and west 

of 135W. Seas in these waters are 10-14 ft. Elsewhere, waters are

dominated by the gradient between subtropical ridging to the N an

the ITCZ, causing widespread fresh trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft. 

To the S, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 

prevalent.



For the forecast, the fresh to strong SE winds between a deepening

low pressure to the west and the ridge to the northeast will 

continue to affect the NW waters through Tue. Large NW swell 

will continue to propagate into the waters west of 125W, and mix 

with shorter period seas associated with the trade wind flow over

the deep tropics. Altogether, expect 8 to 11 ft seas across much

of the area west of 125W through Tue night. These wave heights 

will subside to 8 to 9 ft and diminish in areal extent mid to

late week. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. By

late week, strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas will 

reach the eastern waters from storm-force gap winds in the Gulf 

of Tehuantepec.



$$

Konarik