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AXPZ20 KNHC 210318

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Tue Jan 21 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0300 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: High pressure in the western

Gulf of Mexico currently inducing gale force winds and very rough

seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will slide east tonight, allow

winds early Tue to subside below gale force briefly before a

stronger high pressure surges south into northeastern Mexico,

leading to storm force gap winds developing Tue night in the

Tehuantepec region, with winds of 50 kt and seas to 25 ft into

Wed. Gales and very rough seas will prevail Wed night, before

conditions improve slightly Thu as the second high slides

eastward. Another high pressure will build southward rapidly

toward the end of the week, possibly bringing more gale

conditions. Marine interests transiting in or near the the Gulf

of Tehuantepec this week take the necessary action to avoid 

hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters.



Gulf of California Gale Warning: High pressure building into the

SW United States will support NW to N gales over the northern

Gulf of California with seas building to 11 ft late tonight into

Tue, along with fresh to strong winds over the remainder of the

gulf. In addition, strong winds are forecast to funnel through 

the gaps in the northern Baja California Peninsula into the 

Pacific Ocean building seas to 11 ft north of Punta Eugenia on 

Tue. Conditions will improve Tue night.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N90W. The ITCZ 

stretches from 06N90W to 05N120W and to 10N140W. Scattered 

moderate convection is present from 05N to 08N between 80W and

85W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information a Storm

Warning for the Tehuantepec Region and a Gale Warning for the

northern Gulf of California.



A subtropical ridge located west of Baja California Norte 

continues to support moderate to fresh northerly winds across the

offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in these waters are 5-8

ft, with a component of NW swell. Mainly gentle N winds and seas

of 2 to 4 ft dominate the waters in the Gulf of California and 

elsewhere offshore Mexico.



For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore

waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh 

winds with moderate seas through mid-week. Gentle to moderate 

winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere through 

mid-week. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to locally 

strong NE-E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, spreading 

downstream to 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Meanwhile, 

moderate southerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found south of 

the monsoon trough, especially south of 03N. Elsewhere, gentle or

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will

continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of

Papagayo through at least late week. Seas there will build to 

8-10 ft late in the week. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Seas generated by storm 

force winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across the 

offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador periodically

through mid-week, with seas forecast to peak around 16 ft in NW 

swell Wed and Wed night.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



The subtropical ridge dominates the waters north of 20N and east

of 130W. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas persist between the

ridge and 1007 mb low pressure northeast of Hawaii near 26N145W,

north of 28N between 130W and 140W. Showers and thunderstorms 

also persist in this area. Lighter winds are evident elsewhere

north of 20N, but 8 to 10 ft NW swell is evident elsewhere north

of 20N and west of 130W. Farther south, earlier scatterometer

satellite data showed fresh to strong winds near a possible

trough along the ITCZ near 130W. Recent altimeter satellite and 

Sofar buoy data showed 9 to 11 ft significant wave heights in

that area as well, although much of that was due to NW swell. The

trough may be dampening out and allowing the winds to diminish,

but the wave heights are persisting for now. Moderate winds and

seas are evident elsewhere.



For the forecast, the fresh to strong SE winds between the 

deepening low pressure northeast of Hawaii and the ridge to the 

northeast will continue to affect the waters north of 20N and 

west of 130W through Tue. Large NW swell will continue to 

propagate into the waters west of 125W, and mix with shorter 

period seas associated with the trade wind flow over the deep 

tropics. Altogether, expect 8 to 11 ft seas across much of the 

area west of 125W through Tue night. These wave heights will 

subside to 8 to 9 ft and diminish in areal extent mid to late 

week. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. By late 

week, strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas will reach the

eastern waters from storm- force gap winds in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec.



$$

Christensen