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AXPZ20 KNHC 211603

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Tue Jan 21 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1600 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure building over

the western Gulf of Mexico will support strong gales across the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon, increasing to storm force gap

winds by late evening. Seas are already rough to very rough 

across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and well downstream, but will 

build to at least 25 ft by Wed morning, with a plume of rough to

very rough seas reaching up to 500 nm to the south and southwest

of the Gulf. Looking ahead, these winds and seas will diminish 

slightly through Thu, but gap winds to gale force may persist 

into Sat with rough seas persisting longer.



Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building 

over the Great Basin are supporting gale force winds over the 

northern Gulf of California this morning. Winds will diminish 

below gale force by this afternoon, but fresh to strong NW winds 

and rough seas will continue down the length of the Gulf of 

California through mid week.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N95W. The ITCZ 

stretches from 05N95W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection 

is present within 30 nm of the ITCZ axis. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information a Storm

Warning for the Tehuantepec Region and a Gale Warning for the

northern Gulf of California.



The strong high pressure over the Great Basin that is responsible

for the gale force winds across the northern Gulf of California

is also supporting fresh NE gap winds over low spots along the 

Baja California Peninsula. Combined seas off Baja California 

Norte are likely as high as 8 ft, due to the gap winds and NW 

swell entering the area. 



For the forecast, through tonight, this pattern will also 

support plumes of fresh to strong NE gap winds across the Baja 

California Peninsula along with their associated rough seas 

mainly north of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate winds and 

slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere across the 

offshore waters of Mexico.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to locally 

strong NE-E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, spreading 

downstream to 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Meanwhile, 

moderate southerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found south of 

the monsoon trough, especially south of 03N. Elsewhere, gentle or

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will

continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of

Papagayo through at least late week. Seas there will build to 

8-10 ft late in the week. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Seas generated by storm 

force winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across the 

offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador periodically

through mid-week, with seas forecast to peak around 16 ft in NW 

swell Wed and Wed night.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active along

a surface trough near 135W from 20N to 25N. The trough is

associated with a larger mid to upper level trough that is also

supporting a 1010 mb low pressure farther west near 25N145W, well to

the northeast of Hawaii. An arc of fresh to strong SE winds is 

converging around the trough and toward the low pressure, mainly 

north of 28N and west of 135W, and from 22N to 28N between 130W 

and 135W. Combined seas are 8 to 11 ft north of 20N and west of 

130W, in part due to the winds, but also due to longer-period NW 

swell in the area. Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 

15N and east of 130W. This pattern is support a large area of 

fresh to occasionally strong trade wind over the deep tropics 

from 08N to 15N, between 125W and 135W, with 9 to 11 ft seas in a

mix of wind waves and NW swell. The NW swell is also supporting 

7 to 9 ft seas over the remaining area west of 110W. Farther 

east, NE swell from the gap wind events in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec are reaching westward toward 105W along roughly 10N. 

Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, the fresh to strong SE winds between the 

the low pressure northeast of Hawaii and the ridge to the 

northeast will continue to affect the waters north of 20N and 

west of 130W through Tue. Large NW swell will continue to 

propagate into the waters west of 125W, and mix with shorter 

period seas associated with the trade wind flow over the deep 

tropics. Altogether, expect 8 to 11 ft seas across much of the 

area west of 125W through tonight. These wave heights will 

subside to 8 to 9 ft and diminish in areal extent mid to late 

week. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. By late 

week, strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas will reach as

far west as 110W along roughly 10N from storm- force gap winds 

in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



$$

KRV