****0000005475****
AXPZ20 KNHC 220308

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Wed Jan 22 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0300 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure building into NE Mexico is

supporting gap winds to storm force across the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec. Seas will increase to 23 ft or higher by Wed, with 

seas in excess of 12 ft extending over 500 nm S and SW of the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec. As the high pressure responsible for the 

storm-force winds slides to the east, conditions will improve 

slightly into Thu. However, gale force winds will likely to 

persist through Sat night, and rough seas may prevail through 

the weekend.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 05N95W. The ITCZ 

stretches from 05N95W to 06N140W. No significant convection is

evident at this time. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information about the 

Storm Warning for the Tehuantepec Region.



Strong high pressure over the Great Basin has been supporting

winds to gale force over the northern Gulf of California earlier

today. These winds have since diminished below gale force, but

strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas persist along the

entire length of the Gulf this evening. This pattern is also 

responsible for supporting fresh NE gap winds over low spots 

along the Baja California Peninsula. Combined seas off Baja 

California Norte are likely as high as 8 ft, due to the mostly NE gap

winds and longer-period NW swell entering the area. 



For the forecast, although winds have diminished below gale-

force this evening as the high weakens slightly, fresh to strong 

NW winds will continue in the Gulf through the rest of the week. 

In addition, plumes of strong NE gap winds will funnel across the

Baja California Peninsula and into offshore Pacific waters 

mainly north of Punta Eugenia through the end of the week. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to locally 

strong NE-E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, spreading 

downstream to 89W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Meanwhile, 

gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are 

found south of the monsoon trough, especially south of 03N. 

Elsewhere, gentle or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 

prevail.



For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will 

support fresh to strong easterly winds and occasional rough seas 

in the Gulf of Papagayo into the weekend. Seas generated by storm

force winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across the 

offshore waters of Guatemala periodically through late week, with

seas forecast to peak around 22 ft in N swell Wed. Moderate or 

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A few showers and thunderstorms are active near a pair of surface

troughs from 20N to 30N between 130W and 140W. These troughs are 

associated with a larger mid to upper level trough that is also 

supporting a 1010 mb low pressure farther west near 25N146W, 

well to the northeast of Hawaii. Earlier winds converging into

the low pressure have diminished, but combined seas are 8 to 10 

ft north of 20N and west of 130W due to long- period NW swell in

the area. Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 15N and 

east of 130W. This pattern supports a large area of fresh trade 

wind over the deep tropics from 05N to 20N, between 115W and 

135W, with 9 to 11 ft seas in a mix of wind waves and NW swell. 

The NW swell is also supporting 7 to 9 ft seas over the remaining

area west of 110W. Farther east, NE swell from the gap wind 

events in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are reaching westward toward 

105W along roughly 10N. Moderate winds and seas are noted 

elsewhere. 



For the forecast, the fresh to strong SE winds between the 

the low pressure northeast of Hawaii and the ridge to the 

northeast will continue to affect the waters north of 20N and 

west of 130W through Thu. Large NW swell will continue to 

propagate into the waters west of 125W, and mix with shorter 

period seas associated with the trade wind flow over the deep 

tropics. Altogether, expect 8 to 11 ft seas across much of the 

area west of 125W through tonight. These wave heights will 

subside to 8 to 9 ft and diminish in areal extent mid to late 

week. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. By late 

week, fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas will

reach as far west as 100W along roughly 10N from storm-force gap

winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.



$$

Christensen