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AXPZ20 KNHC 221559

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Wed Jan 22 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure building

into NE Mexico is supporting gap winds to storm force across the

Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas will increase to 22 ft or higher 

today, with seas in excess of 12 ft extending over 500 nm S and 

SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. As the high pressure responsible 

for the storm-force winds slides to the east, conditions will 

diminish below storm force by late today. However, gale force 

winds will likely to persist through Sat night into Sun morning 

across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and rough seas may prevail 

through the weekend.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The ITCZ stretches from 05N83W to 05N110W to 07N140W. Scattered 

moderate convection is active from 05N to 10N between 111W and

123W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information about the 

Storm Warning for the Tehuantepec Region.



A surface trough over western Mexico is producing scattered 

showers over the Gulf of California and offshore Mexico waters. 

Fresh to strong NW winds continue to pulse across the Gulf of 

California, which are the result of a broad area of high pressure

building over the Great Basin. Seas in these areas range between

4 to 8 ft. Off Baja California Norte moderate to fresh winds 

prevail with seas 4 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 

ft seas are noted elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters.



For the forecast, winds and seas in the Gulf of California and

off Baja California Norte will diminish through Fri as high

pressure over the Great Basin weakens. Looking ahead, expect

fresh to strong SW gap winds Sat and Sat night over the northern

Gulf of California as a front moves through the area. Large NW

swell will follow the front off Baja California Norte late Sat

into Sun. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to locally 

strong NE-E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, spreading 

downstream to 89W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Meanwhile, 

gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are 

found south of the monsoon trough, especially south of 03N. 

Elsewhere, gentle or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 

prevail.



For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will 

support fresh to strong easterly winds and occasional rough seas 

in the Gulf of Papagayo into the weekend and early next week. 

Seas generated by storm force winds in the Tehuantepec area will 

propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala periodically 

through late week, with seas forecast to peak around 22 ft in N 

swell Wed. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 

will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A few showers and thunderstorms are active near a surface 

troughs from 27N to 30N between 137W and 140W. Similar convection

is depicted from 21N to 24N between 134W and 138W. This trough 

is associated with a larger mid to upper level trough that is 

also supporting a 1012 mb low pressure farther well to the 

northeast of Hawaii. Moderate SE winds, with seas are 8 to 10 ft

north of 20N and west of 130W due to long- period NW swell in 

the area. Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 15N and 

east of 130W. This pattern supports a large area of fresh trade 

wind over the deep tropics from 05N to 20N, between 120W and 

140W, with 8 to 10 ft seas in a mix of wind waves and NW swell. 

The NW swell is also supporting 6 to 8 ft seas over the 

remaining area west of 110W. Farther east, NE swell from the gap 

wind events in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are reaching westward 

toward 100W along roughly 10N. Moderate winds and seas are noted

elsewhere. 



For the forecast, the fresh to strong SE winds between the 

the low pressure northeast of Hawaii and the ridge to the 

northeast will continue to affect the waters north of 20N and 

west of 130W through Thu. Large NW swell will continue to 

propagate into the waters west of 125W, and mix with shorter 

period seas associated with the trade wind flow over the deep 

tropics. These wave heights will subside to 8 to 9 ft and 

diminish in areal extent through late week. Moderate winds and 

seas will persist elsewhere. By late week, fresh to strong NE-E 

winds and moderate to rough seas will reach as far west as 110W 

along roughly 10N from storm-force gap winds in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec.



$$

KRV