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AXPZ20 KNHC 230312

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Thu Jan 23 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0300 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning:

Strong high pressure over NE Mexico continues to support gap

winds to gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with rough to

very rough seas extending over 500 nm S and SW of the Gulf of

Tehuantepec. The gale force winds will likely persist through Sat

night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and rough seas may linger

through the weekend.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The ITCZ stretches from 05N90W to 03N100W to 07N110W to 07N140W.

No significant convection is evident at this time. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information about the 

Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec Region.



A few showers persist across the Gulf of California, south of an

upper trough over the southwest U.S. Strong high pressure over

the Great Basin well north of the area is supporting fresh to 

strong NW winds across the Gulf of California. Seas in these 

areas range between 3 to 5 ft over the northern Gulf of

California, and 5 to 7 ft over the central and southern Gulf. 

Off Baja California Norte moderate to fresh to locally strong 

winds prevail with seas 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 4

to 6 ft seas in NW swell are noted elsewhere over Mexican 

offshore waters.



For the forecast, high pressure building into the SW United 

States will support fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas 

across the Gulf of California into Fri afternoon. In addition, 

plumes of strong NE gap winds will funnel across the Baja 

California Peninsula and into offshore Pacific waters mainly 

north of Punta Eugenia tonight. Looking ahead, expect fresh to 

strong SW winds across the northern Gulf of California Sat and 

Sat night ahead of a cold front moving through the region. By 

Sun, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the early part

of next week over the Gulf of Baja California, while fresh to 

strong winds will prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to strong NE-E

winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, spreading downstream to 90W. 

Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate 

southeasterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found south of the 

monsoon trough, especially south of 03N. Elsewhere, gentle or 

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will

continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds and

occasional rough seas in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun. Seas

generated by the gale force winds in the Tehuantepec area will

propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala periodically

through late Sun, with seas forecast to peak around 14 ft 

overnight in northerly swell tonight. Moderate or weaker winds 

and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N, supporting

moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds from 08N to 20N and west of

120W, where combined seas are 7 to 9 ft with a component of NW 

swell. Farther east, fresh to strong NE to E winds and 8 to 12 ft

seas are evident from 08N to 12N east of 105W, associated with 

gap winds and associated swell in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and 

Papagayo. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, seas will build from roughly 05N to 14N east of

110W through early Fri as additional swell propagates westward

from prolonged gap wind events farther east, and these conditions

will persist through Mon. Farther west, winds trade winds will

diminish as the high pressure to the north weakens, and seas 

will gradually subside from east to west through Sat. Farther

north, the high pressure will weaken due to a cold front expected

to move through the waters north of 25N and east of 125W late

Sat through Mon. Northerly swell of 8 to 11 ft will follow the

front, and cover the region north of 20N by early Mon.



$$

Christensen