****0000005107****
AXPZ20 KNHC 231555

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Thu Jan 23 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1545 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning:

Strong high pressure over northeast Mexico continues to support

gap winds to gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with

rough to very rough seas extending over 500 nm S and SW of the

Gulf of Tehuantepec. Minimal gales will persist through tonight,

then pulse to strong gales Fri as reinforcing high pressure

builds over northeast Mexico. The gale force winds will gradually

diminish below gale force in intensity and shrink in areal extent

Fri late night through Sat night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec,

although winds may briefly pulse again to minimal gale force Sun

night. Rough to very rough seas will also linger in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec and downstream into Mon.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The ITCZ stretches from 05N91W to 07N116W to beyond 07N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is active from 06N to 09N between 

112W and 140W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information about the 

Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec Region.



Ship observation and data from a scatterometer satellite pass 

indicated fresh to strong NW winds along the length of the Gulf 

of California earlier this morning. This is due to strong high 

pressure north of the area, over the Great Basin. Seas in the 

central and southern Gulf of California are 5 to 6 ft, and 3 to 

6 ft over the northern Gulf of California. Mostly moderate winds

are noted elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, with 4 

to 6 ft in NW swell. 



For the forecast, high pressure over the Great Basin will build 

today, allowing for strong to near-gale force winds and rough 

seas across the Gulf of California, before diminishing Fri as the

high pressure weakens. Expect fresh to strong SW winds across 

the northern Gulf of California Sat and Sat night ahead of a cold

front moving through the region. By Sun, gentle to moderate 

winds will prevail through the early part of next week over the 

Gulf of Baja California, while fresh to strong winds will prevail

across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to strong NE-E

winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, spreading downstream to 92W. 

Seas in these waters are 9-11 ft. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate 

southeasterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are found south of the 

monsoon trough, especially south of 03N. Elsewhere, gentle or 

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will 

continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds and occasional

rough seas in the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon night. Seas 

generated by the gale force winds in the Tehuantepec area will 

propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala periodically 

through late Sun, with seas forecast to peak around 13 ft in 

northerly swell Fri night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to

moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N, supporting

moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds from 08N to 20N and west of

114W, where combined seas are 7 to 9 ft with a component of NW 

swell. Farther east, fresh to strong NE to E winds and 8 to 11 

ft seas are evident from 06N to 12N east of 108W, associated 

with gap winds and associated swell in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec 

and Papagayo. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, winds will increase to fresh to locally strong

and seas will build from roughly 05N to 14N east of 110W

beginningFri morning as additional swell propagates westward 

from prolonged gap wind events farther east, and these conditions

will persist through Mon. Farther west, winds trade winds will 

diminish as the high pressure to the north weakens, and seas will

gradually subside from east to west through Sat. Farther north, 

the high pressure will weaken due to a cold front expected to 

move through the waters north of 25N and east of 125W late Sat 

through Mon. Northerly swell of 8 to 11 ft will follow the front,

and cover the region north of 25N by early Mon.



$$

KRV