****0000005721****
AXPZ20 KNHC 240323

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Fri Jan 24 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0305 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over 

NE Mexico continues to support gap winds to gale force across 

the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with rough to very rough seas extending

as far south as 03N and west to 110W. Minimal gales will persist

through tonight, then pulse to strong gales Fri as reinforcing 

high pressure builds over northeast Mexico. Winds gusts may reach

storm force Fri into Fri night. The gale force winds will 

gradually diminish below gale force in intensity and shrink in 

areal extent Sat through Sat night across the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, although winds may briefly pulse again to minimal 

gale force Sun night. Rough to very rough seas will also linger 

in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream into Mon.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from the coast of eastern Panama near 

08N78W to 06N90W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N90W to 06N115W and to

beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from

04N to 10N and between 101W and 119W. Similar convection is

evident from 03N to 10N and west of 130W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information about the 

Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec Region.



A strong subtropical ridge over the NE Pacific extends

southeastward into the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure

gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Mexico

support fresh to near gale-force northerly winds across much of

the Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are moderate to

rough. Fresh to strong NE winds spill over the mountain passages

in Baja California Norte, reaching the offshore waters,

especially east of Guadalupe Islands and north of Punta Eugenia.

Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. In the remainder of the offshore

waters of Mexico, excluding the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or

weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, strong high pressure over the Great Basin of

the US will continue to support strong to near-gale force

northerly winds and rough seas across the Gulf of California and

off Baja California Norte, before diminishing Fri as the high 

pressure weakens. Then, winds will increase again to fresh to 

strong across the northern Gulf of California Sat and Sat night 

ahead of a cold front moving through the region. By Sun 

afternoon, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the 

early part of next week over the Gulf of Baja California, while 

fresh to strong winds will prevail across the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Strong riding north of the area continues to support fresh to

strong easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, 

spreading downstream to 90W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.

Farther east, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and

slight seas are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate 

or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will 

continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds and occasional

rough seas in the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue night. Seas 

generated by the gale force winds in the Tehuantepec area will 

propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala periodically 

through late Sun, with seas forecast to peak around 13 ft in 

northerly swell Fri night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to

moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A strong high pressure system north of the area dominates the

tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between this

ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate

to fresh easterly trade winds west of 120W. Seas in these waters

are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 10N137W.

Farther east, moderate to fresh NE-E winds and 8-9 ft seas are 

evident from 03N to 13N and east of 108W, associated with gap 

winds and associated swell in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and 

Papagayo. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 

are prevalent.



For the forecast, winds will increase to fresh to locally strong

and seas will build from roughly 06N to 14N east of 110W 

beginning Fri morning as additional swell propagates westward 

from prolonged gap wind events farther east, and these conditions

will persist through Sun night. Farther west, trade winds will 

diminish as the high pressure to the north weakens, and seas will

gradually subside from east to west through Sat. Farther north, 

the high pressure will weaken due to a cold front expected to 

move through the waters north of 25N and east of 125W late Sat 

through Mon. Northerly swell of 8-10 ft will follow the front, 

and cover the region north of 27N by early Mon.



$$

Delgado