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AXPZ20 KNHC 241601

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Fri Jan 24 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1600 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1035 mb high pressure system

positioned over NE Mexico continues to force strong to gale-force

N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are 

producing rough to very rough seas extending as far south as 06N

and west to 110W. A reinforcing ridge over NE Mexico will 

support strong gales today and tonight, along with wind gusts 

possibly reaching storm force. The gale force winds will 

gradually diminish below gale force in intensity and shrink in 

areal extent Sat through Sat night across the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, briefly pulsing again to minimal gale force Sun 

night. Rough to very rough seas will also linger in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec and downstream into Mon.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from the coast of eastern Panama near 

07N78W to 05N96W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N96W to 07N115W and 

to beyond 05N140W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is 

present from 04N to 08N between 79W and 89W. Similar convection

is depicted from 03N to 08N and west of 103W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information about the 

Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec Region.



The pressure gradient between a broad subtropical ridge northwest

of the area and lower pressures in NW Mexico continue to sustain 

fresh to near gale-force northerly winds across the northern and

central Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. 

Moderate to fresh NE winds spill over the mountain passages in 

Baja California Norte, reaching the offshore waters, especially 

east of Guadalupe Islands and north of Punta Eugenia. Seas in 

these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 

3-7 ft are found in the southern portion of the Gulf of 

California. In the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico, 

excluding the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, strong high pressure over the Great Basin of

the US will continue to support strong to near-gale force

northerly winds and moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of 

California and off Baja California Norte, before diminishing this

afternoon as the high pressure weakens. Then, winds will 

increase again to fresh to strong across the northern Gulf of 

California Sat and Sat night ahead of a cold front moving through

the region. By Sun afternoon, gentle to moderate winds will 

prevail through the early part of next week over the Gulf of Baja

California, while fresh to strong winds will prevail across the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A robust high pressure system centered north of the Caribbean

forces fresh to near gale-force northeasterly winds across the 

Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to 89W. Moderate 

to locally fresh NE winds are also noted in the Gulf of Fonseca 

area. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or 

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will 

continue to support fresh to locally near gale-force easterly 

winds and occasional rough seas in the Gulf of Papagayo through 

Tue night. Seas generated by the gale force winds in the 

Tehuantepec area will propagate across the offshore waters of 

Guatemala periodically through late Sun, with seas forecast to 

peak around 12 ft in northerly swell tonight and Sat. Moderate 

or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail 

elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



The tropical eastern Pacific is under the influence of a strong

subtropical ridge located well north of the area. The pressure

gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep

tropics forces fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds

between the ITCZ and 20N and west of 120W. Seas in these waters 

are 7-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the westernmost 

waters. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and 

moderate seas are noted in the rest of the waters west of 115W. 



Farther east, moderate to fresh NE-E winds and 5-8 ft seas noted

in the waters north of the ITCZ and east of 115W in association 

with the gap winds and swell from the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and 

Papagayo. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 

are prevalent.



For the forecast, winds will increase to fresh to locally strong

and seas will build from roughly 05N to 14N east of 110W later 

this today as additional swell propagates westward from 

prolonged gap wind events farther east. These conditions will 

persist through Sun night. Farther west, trade winds will 

diminish as the high pressure to the north weakens, and seas will

gradually subside from east to west through Sat. Farther north, 

the high pressure will weaken due to a cold front expected to 

move through the waters north of 25N and east of 125W late Sat 

through Mon. Northerly swell of 8-10 ft will follow the front, 

and cover the region north of 26N by early Mon.



$$

KRV