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AXPZ20 KNHC 242132

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Fri Jan 24 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2130 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1035 mb high pressure system

positioned over NE Mexico continues to force strong to gale-force

N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec per latest scatterometer

data. These winds are producing rough to very rough seas 

extending as far south as 06N and west to 110W. A reinforcing 

ridge over NE Mexico will support strong gales this afternoon 

and tonight, along with wind gusts possibly reaching storm force.

The gale force winds will gradually diminish below gale force in

intensity and shrink in areal extent Sat through Sat night 

across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, briefly pulsing again to minimal 

gale force Sun night. Rough to very rough seas will also linger 

in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream into Mon.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from the coast of eastern Panama near 

07N78W to 05N94W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N94W to 06N115W and 

to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present from

05N to 08N east of 90W. Similar convection is depicted from 03N 

to 10N between 102W and west of 127. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information about the 

Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec Region.



The pressure gradient between a broad subtropical ridge northwest

of the area and lower pressures in NW Mexico continue to sustain 

fresh to strong northerly winds across the northern and central 

Gulf of California per the latest scatterometer data. Seas in 

these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and 

seas of 3-6 ft are found in the southern portion of the Gulf of 

California. In the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico, 

excluding the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, strong high pressure over the Great Basin of

the US will continue to support strong to near-gale force

northerly winds and moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of 

California and off Baja California Norte, before diminishing this

evening as the high pressure weakens. Then, winds will increase 

again to fresh to strong across the northern Gulf of California 

Sat and Sat night ahead of a cold front moving through the 

region. By Sun afternoon, gentle to moderate winds will prevail 

through the early part of next week over the Gulf of Baja 

California, while fresh to strong winds will prevail across the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A robust high pressure system centered north of the Caribbean

forces fresh to strong northeasterly winds across the Gulf of 

Papagayo region, extending downstream to 90W. Moderate NE winds 

are also noted in the Gulf of Fonseca area. Elsewhere, moderate 

or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will 

continue to support fresh to locally near gale-force easterly 

winds and occasional rough seas in the Gulf of Papagayo through 

Tue night. Seas generated by the gale force winds in the 

Tehuantepec area will propagate across the offshore waters of 

Guatemala periodically through late Sun, with seas forecast to 

peak around 13 ft in northerly swell tonight and Sat. Moderate to

fresh to locally strong winds will also prevail through the 

weekend over the Gulf of Panama with seas 3 to 6 ft. Moderate or 

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



The tropical eastern Pacific is under the influence of a strong

subtropical ridge located well north of the area. The pressure

gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep

tropics forces fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds

between the ITCZ and 20N and west of 120W. Seas in these waters 

are 7-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the westernmost 

waters. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and 

moderate seas are noted in the rest of the waters west of 115W. 



Farther east, moderate to fresh NE-E winds and 6-8 ft seas noted

in the waters north of the ITCZ and east of 114W in association 

with the gap winds and swell from the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and 

Papagayo. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 

are prevalent.



For the forecast, winds will increase to fresh to locally strong

and seas will build from roughly 06N to 13N east of 110W tonight

as additional swell propagates westward from prolonged gap wind 

events farther east. These conditions will persist through Sun 

night. Farther west, trade winds will diminish as the high 

pressure to the north weakens, and seas will gradually subside 

from east to west through the weekend. Farther north, the high 

pressure will weaken due to a cold front expected to move through

the waters north of 25N and east of 125W late Sat through Mon. 

Northerly swell of 8 to 10 ft will follow the front, and cover 

the region north of 25N by Sun night. Seas is this region will 

subside below 8 ft Mon night. 



$$

KRV