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AXPZ20 KNHC 250310

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Sat Jan 25 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0305 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge over NE Mexico 

continues to force strong to gale-force N winds across the Gulf 

of Tehuantepec. Gusts may be reaching storm force tonight. These

winds are producing rough to very rough seas extending as far 

south as 06N and west to 112W. The gale force winds will 

gradually diminish below gale force in intensity and shrink in 

areal extent Sat through Sat night across the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, briefly pulsing again to minimal gale force Sun 

night. Rough to very rough seas will also linger in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec and downstream into Mon.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from the coast of NW Colombia near 

06N77W to 05N94W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N94W to 07N117W and 

to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed 

from 02N to 13N and west of 125W.  



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information about the 

Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec Region.



Weak high pressure dominates the offshore waters of Baja

California, allowing for variable light to gentle winds and

slight to moderate seas. However, lower pressures in NW Mexico

result in a tighter pressure gradient across the Gulf of

California, supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds,

especially in the central portion of the basin. Seas in the gulf

are 2-5 ft. In the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico, 

excluding the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, a cold front will move across the northern Gulf

of California over the next few days and winds will strengthen 

to fresh to strong across the northern waters Sat and Sat night.

By Sun afternoon, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through 

the early part of next week over the Gulf of Baja California.

Northerly swell will arrive on Sun to the far NW waters, reaching

10 ft, before subsiding on Mon. Meanwhile, strong to gale- force

N winds will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec until early next

week, along with rough to very rough seas.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



An expansive ridge located north of the area supports fresh to

near gale-force easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo

region, spreading downstream to 93W. Moderate to locally strong

NE winds are also noted off the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras and

El Salvador. Seas in the areas described are 4-8 ft. Farther

east, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and slight seas

are found in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 

winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will 

continue to support fresh to locally near gale-force easterly 

winds and occasional rough seas in the Gulf of Papagayo through 

the forecast period. Seas generated by the gale force winds in 

the Tehuantepec area will propagate across the offshore waters of

Guatemala periodically through late Sun, with seas forecast to 

peak around 13 ft in northerly swell tonight and Sat. Moderate to

fresh to locally strong winds will also prevail through the 

weekend over the Gulf of Panama with seas 3-6 ft. Moderate or 

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Broad ridging dominates the tropical eastern Pacific, supporting

moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 8-10 ft west of 130W. 

Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are 

found north of the ITCZ to 17N and west of 105W. Meanwhile, fresh

to strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas are found east 

of 105W and north of the ITCZ due to the winds and swell 

spreading downstream from the gap wind events occurring in the 

Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to gentle 

winds and moderate seas are evident.



For the forecast, fresh to strong and rough seas will persist

through Sun night in the eastern waters as additional swell 

propagates westward from prolonged gap wind events farther east. 

Farther west, trade winds will diminish somewhat as the high 

pressure to the north weakens, and seas will gradually subside 

from east to west through the weekend. Farther north, the high 

pressure will weaken due to a cold front expected to move through

the waters north of 25N and east of 125W late Sat through Mon. 

Northerly swell of 8 to 11 ft will follow the front, and cover 

the region north of 25N by Sun night. Seas is this region will 

subside below 8 ft Mon night. 



$$

Delgado