****0000005776****
AXPZ20 KNHC 250905

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Sat Jan 25 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0905 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge over the

northern Gulf of Mexico continues to force strong to gale-force 

N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gusts may be reaching 

storm force this morning. These winds are producing rough to 

very rough seas extending as far south as 06N and west to 112W. 

The gale force winds will gradually diminish below gale force in 

intensity and shrink in areal extent Sat through Sun morning 

across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, briefly pulsing again to minimal 

gale force Sun night. Rough to very rough seas will also linger 

in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream into Mon.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from the coast of NW Colombia near 

06N77W to 04N95W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N95W to 08N120W and 

to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring 

from 04N to 16N and west of 110W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information about the 

Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec Region.



A strong high pressure centered well northwest of the area

extends weakly to the Revillagigedo Islands. The weak pressure

gradient result in light to gentle variable winds and slight to

moderate seas across the offshore waters of Baja California.

Winds have diminished in the Gulf of California and recent data

indicate that light to gentle winds and slight seas are

prevalent. 



In the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico, excluding the

Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 

are prevalent.



For the forecast, a cold front will move across the northern Gulf

of California over the next few days and winds will strengthen 

to fresh to strong across the northern waters today into Sun. By

Sun afternoon, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the

early part of next week over the Gulf of Baja California. Northerly

swell will arrive on Sun to the far NW waters, reaching 10 ft, 

before subsiding on Mon. Meanwhile, strong to gale-force N winds

will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec until early next week, 

along with rough to very rough seas.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A 1032 mb high pressure system centered in the NE Gulf of Mexico

forces fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the Gulf

of Papagayo region, spreading downstream to 93W. Gusts may reach

gale force today and tonight. Moderate to locally strong NE 

winds are also noted off the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El 

Salvador and Guatemala. Seas in the areas described are 6-10 ft.

Farther east, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 3-5

ft are found in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or 

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, a strong ridge positioned north of the area 

will continue to support fresh to locally near gale-force 

easterly winds and occasional rough seas in the Gulf of Papagayo 

through the forecast period. Seas generated by the gale force 

winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across the offshore 

waters of Guatemala periodically through late Sun, with seas 

forecast to peak around 12 ft in northerly swell today. Moderate

to fresh to locally strong winds will also prevail through the 

weekend over the Gulf of Panama with seas 3-6 ft. Moderate or 

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A strong subtropical ridge positioned well north of the area

extends southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The weak

pressure gradient results in moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds

and moderate seas west of 130W. This was confirmed by a recent 

scatterometer satellite pass. Moderate to locally fresh easterly 

breezes and moderate seas are found north of the ITCZ to 17N and 

west of 105W. Meanwhile, fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate

to rough seas are found east of 105W and north of the ITCZ due 

to the winds and swell spreading downstream from the gap wind 

events occurring in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo. 

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are evident.



For the forecast, fresh to strong and rough seas will persist

through Sun night in the eastern waters as additional swell 

propagates westward from prolonged gap wind events farther east. 

Farther west, trade winds will diminish somewhat as the high 

pressure to the north weakens, and seas will gradually subside 

from east to west through the weekend. Farther north, the high 

pressure will weaken due to a cold front expected to move through

the waters north of 25N and east of 125W late today through Mon.

Northerly swell of 8 to 11 ft will follow the front, and cover 

the region north of 25N by Sun night. Seas is this region will 

subside below 8 ft Mon night. 



$$

Delgado