****0000006656****
AXPZ20 KNHC 251558

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Sat Jan 25 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge over the

Gulf of Mexico continues to force strong to gale-force N winds 

across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending southwestward to near

11.5N. These winds are producing rough to very rough seas 

extending as far south as 06N and west to 106W, with peak seas

near 15 kt currently occurring within the gales. The gale force 

winds will gradually diminish below gale force in intensity and 

shrink in areal extent Sat through Sun morning across the Gulf of

Tehuantepec, briefly pulsing again to near gale force Sun night.

Rough to very rough seas will also linger in the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec and downstream into Mon.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 10N75W to

05.5N91W. The ITCZ stretches from 05.5N91W to 04N98W to 09.5N118W

to 06N129W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 

convection is noted from 03N to 05.5N E of 84W to coastal

Colombia, from 09N to 12.5N between 111W and 124W and from 05.5N

to 09N between 121W and 136W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information about the 

Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec Region.



A strong high pressure centered across the NE Pacific extends

southward across 30N and then weakly southeastward to Baja

California Sur. The weak pressure gradient is resulting in light

to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas across the 

offshore waters of Baja California. Winds throughout the Gulf of

California remain light to gentle winds with slight seas, except

for moderate S winds across far north portions.



In the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico, excluding the

Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas

of less than 6 ft prevail. NE swell propagating outward from

Tehuantepec is producing seas of 8 to 8 ft across the far outer

waters of Oaxaca and eastern Guerrero.



For the forecast, a cold front will move across the northern Gulf

of California over the next few days, causing S to SW winds 

ahead of it to strengthen to fresh to strong across the northern 

waters today into Sun. By Sun afternoon, gentle to moderate winds

will prevail through the early part of next week over the Gulf 

of Baja California. Northerly swell will arrive on Sun to the far

NW Baja waters, reaching 10 ft, before subsiding on Mon. Light 

to gentle winds will continue across the Baja offshore waters 

through Sun evening, then gradually return to moderate N to NW 

winds through Tue. Meanwhile, strong to gale-force N winds will 

persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec until early next week, 

along with rough to very rough seas.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A 1032 mb high pressure system centered over the southeastern

U.S. continues to force fresh to strong easterly gap winds in 

the Gulf of Papagayo region, spreading downstream to 92W this

morning. Gusts may reach gale force today and tonight. Moderate 

to locally strong NE gap winds are also noted off the coasts of 

Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala. Seas in the areas

described are generally 6-10 ft. Farther east, moderate to fresh

northerly winds and seas of 4-5 ft are found in the Gulf of 

Panama, extending southward to near 04N. Elsewhere, moderate or 

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered moderate 

isolated strong convection persists this morning across the

waters from coastal Colombia to 84W between 03N and 05.5N.



For the forecast, a strong ridge positioned north of the area 

will continue to support fresh to locally near gale-force 

easterly winds and occasional rough seas in the Gulf of Papagayo 

through the forecast period. Seas generated by the gale force 

winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across the offshore 

waters of Guatemala periodically through late Sun, with seas 

forecast to peak around 12 ft in northerly swell today. Moderate

to fresh to locally strong winds will also prevail through the 

weekend over the Gulf of Panama with seas 3-6 ft. Moderate or 

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A strong yet narrow subtropical ridge positioned well north of 

the area extends southward across 30N and into the eastern 

Pacific between 120W and 150W. The modest pressure gradient 

across the tropical Pacific results in moderate to locally fresh 

NE-E winds and moderate seas west of 120W. This was confirmed by

overnight scatterometer satellite data. Moderate to locally 

fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found north of the 

ITCZ to 17N between 120W and 105W. Meanwhile, fresh to strong 

NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas are found east of 105W and 

north of the ITCZ due to the winds and swell spreading downstream

from the gap wind events occurring in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec 

and Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 

are evident.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will 

persist through Sun night in the eastern waters south of 20N as 

additional swell propagates westward from prolonged gap wind 

events farther east. To the west, trade winds will diminish 

somewhat as the high pressure ridge to the north weakens, and 

seas will gradually subside from east to west through the 

weekend. Farther north, the high pressure will weaken due to a 

cold front expected to move through the waters north of 25N and 

east of 125W late today through Mon. Northerly swell of 8 to 11 

ft will follow the front, and cover the region north of 25N by 

Sun night. Seas is this region will subside below 8 ft Mon night.



$$

Stripling