****0000007658****
AXPZ20 KNHC 252139

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Sat Jan 25 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2040 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge over the

Gulf of Mexico continues to force strong to gale-force N winds 

across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending southwestward to near

13N this afternoon. Midday satellite scatterometer data showed

winds to minimal gale force within 60 nm of the coast of

Tehuantepec, with peak seas estimated at 13 ft. These winds are 

producing rough to very rough seas extending as far south as 06N 

and west to 106W. The gale force winds will gradually diminish 

below gale force in intensity and shrink in areal extent this

afternoon through Sun morning across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 

briefly pulsing again to near gale force Sun night. Rough to very

rough seas will also linger in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 

downstream into Tue.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 10N74.5W to

04.5N89W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N91W to 09.5N117W to 09N122W

to 06N128W to 07N136W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate 

isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05.5N E of 83W 

to coastal Colombia, from 07N to 12.5N between 107W and 123W, 

and from 05.5N to 10N between 120W and 135W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information about the 

Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec Region.



A 1038 mb high pressure is centered across the NE Pacific and 

extends southward across 30N and then weakly southeastward to

offshore of Baja California Sur. The weak pressure gradient E of

120W is resulting in light to gentle variable winds and slight 

to moderate seas across the offshore waters of Baja California. 

Winds throughout the Gulf of California remain light to gentle 

winds with slight seas, except for moderate S winds across far 

north portions.



In the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico, excluding the

Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 

of less than 6 ft prevail. NE swell propagating outward from 

Tehuantepec is producing seas of 7 to 9 ft across the far outer 

waters of Oaxaca and eastern Guerrero.



For the forecast, a weak cold front will move across Baja Norte

and the northern Gulf of California, followed by a weaker 

reinforcing front over the next few days. This will induce S to 

SW winds ahead of it to strengthen to fresh to strong across the 

northern waters late this afternoon into Sun. By Sun afternoon,

wind there will weaken, leaving gentle to moderate winds to 

prevail through the early part of next week over the Gulf of 

California. New northerly swell will arrive into the Baja Norte

waters on Sun, reaching near 10 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe, 

before subsiding across the Baja waters Mon through Mon night. 

Light to gentle winds will continue across the Baja offshore 

waters through Sun evening, then gradually return to moderate N 

to NW winds Mon through Tue, as high pressure begins to build

across the region. Winds across the Baja offshore waters

southward to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands will increase to

fresh to locally strong Tue night through Wed as high pressure

sinks to near 30N and builds across the region. Meanwhile, 

strong to gale-force N winds will persist across the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec until Tue night, producing rough to very rough seas.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A 1034 mb high pressure system centered over the southeastern

U.S. continues to force fresh to strong easterly gap winds across

the Papagayo region, spreading downstream to 92W this afternoon,

as verified by midday scatterometer satellite data. Gusts there may

reach near gale force tonight. Moderate to fresh NE gap winds 

are also noted off the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El 

Salvador. Seas in the areas described are generally 6-10 ft. 

Farther east, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-5 

ft are found in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to near 

05N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 

seas prevail. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 

persists this morning across the waters from coastal Colombia to 

83W between 02N and 05.5N.



For the forecast, a strong ridge positioned north of the area 

will continue to support fresh to locally near gale-force 

easterly winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Papagayo through 

Mon, then pulsing fresh to strong winds through the remainder of the

forecast period. Seas generated by the gale force winds in the 

Tehuantepec area will propagate across the offshore waters of 

Guatemala through late Sun, with seas forecast to peak around 11

ft in northerly swell today. Moderate to fresh to locally strong

winds will also prevail through the weekend over the Gulf of 

Panama with seas 3-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A strong yet narrow subtropical ridge positioned well north of 

the area extends southward across 30N and into the eastern 

Pacific between 120W and 150W. The modest pressure gradient 

across the tropical Pacific results in moderate to locally fresh 

NE-E winds and moderate seas west of 130W, as confirmed by 

afternoon scatterometer satellite data. Moderate to locally 

fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found north of the 

ITCZ to 17N between 130W and 105W. Meanwhile, fresh to strong 

NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas are found east of 105W and 

north of the ITCZ due to the winds and swell spreading downstream

from the gap wind events occurring in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec 

and Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 

are evident.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will 

persist through Sun evening in the eastern waters south of 20N 

as additional swell propagates westward from prolonged gap wind 

events farther east. To the west, trade winds will diminish 

somewhat as the high pressure ridge to the north weakens, and 

seas will gradually subside from east to west through the 

weekend. Farther north, the high pressure will weaken due to a 

cold front expected to move through the waters north of 25N and 

east of 125W late today through Mon. Northerly swell of 8 to 11 

ft will follow the front, and cover the region north of 25N by 

Sun night. Seas is this region will subside below 8 ft Mon night.

Looking ahead, high pressure over the the NE Pacific will re-

organize along about 30 N by Wed, and increase the pressure

gradient across the trade wind zone W of 115W through the end of

the work week. Winds will increase to fresh to strong S of 20N

there, with seas building to 7-10 ft.



$$

Stripling