****0000006990**** AXPZ20 KNHC 260309 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jan 26 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A retreating high pressure system north of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to support strong to gale-force northerly winds across the basin. These winds are producing rough seas extending as far south as 08N and west to 108W. Winds will gradually diminish below gale force and shrink in areal extent tonight through Sun morning across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, briefly pulsing again to near gale force Sun night. Rough seas will also linger in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream into Tue. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia near 07N78W to 05N87W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N87W to 05N105W to 09N123W. A surface trough is analyzed from 11N123W to 05N127W. The ITCZ continues from 06N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 15N and between 111W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information about the Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec Region. A weak cold front is entering the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. The pressure gradient between this frontal boundary and higher pressures over NW Mexico result in fresh to locally strong SW winds in the northern waters of the Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. The remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, are under a weak high pressure regime. This regime sustains moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, a weak cold front will move across Baja Norte and the northern Gulf of California, followed by a weaker reinforcing front over the next few days. This will support fresh to strong S-SW winds across the northern waters into Sun. By Sun afternoon, wind there will weaken, leaving gentle to moderate winds to prevail through the early part of next week over the Gulf of California. New northerly swell will arrive into the Baja Norte waters on Sun, reaching near 10 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe, before subsiding across the Baja waters Mon through Mon night. Light to gentle winds will continue across the Baja offshore waters through Sun evening, then gradually return to moderate N to NW winds Mon through Tue, as high pressure begins to build across the region. Winds across the Baja offshore waters southward to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands will increase to fresh to locally strong Tue night through Wed as high pressure sinks to near 30N and builds across the region. Meanwhile, strong to gale- force N winds will persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec until Tue night, producing rough to very rough seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A 1032 mb high pressure system positioned north of the Caribbean Sea continues to support fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region, spreading downstream to 93W. Gusts there may reach near gale force tonight. Moderate to fresh NE gap winds are also noted off the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador. Seas in the areas described are generally 6-9 ft. Farther east, the same ridge supports fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 3-6 ft in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to near 04N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a strong ridge positioned north of the area will continue to support fresh to locally near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon, then pulsing fresh to strong winds through the remainder of the forecast period. Seas generated by the gale force winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala through late Sun, with seas forecast to peak around 10 ft in northerly swell tonight. Moderate to fresh to locally strong winds will also prevail through the weekend over the Gulf of Panama with seas 3-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak cold front is entering the northern waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. Moderate northerly winds are noted behind the frontal boundary. However, a northerly swell is also entering the basin with seas to 8 ft, but will be gradually building to 11 ft into late Sun. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of subtropical ridge located well north of the area, supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas south of 20N to the ITCZ and west of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found north of the ITCZ to 17N between 105W and 130W. Meanwhile, fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas are evident east of 105W and north of the ITCZ due to the winds and swell spreading downstream from the gap wind events occurring in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will persist through Sun evening in the eastern waters south of 20N as additional swell propagates westward from prolonged gap wind events farther east. To the west, trade winds will diminish somewhat as the high pressure ridge to the north weakens, and seas will gradually subside from east to west through the weekend. Farther north, the aforementioned cold front will move through the waters north of 25N and east of 125W through Mon. Northerly swell of 8 to 11 ft will follow the front, and cover the region north of 25N by Sun night. Seas in this region will subside below 8 ft Mon night. Looking ahead, high pressure over the the NE Pacific will build back along about 30N by Wed, and increase the pressure gradient across the trade wind zone W of 115W through the end of the work week. Winds will increase to fresh to strong S of 20N there, with seas building to 7-10 ft. $$ Delgado