****0000007297****
AXPZ20 KNHC 260900

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Sun Jan 26 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0855 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A retreating high pressure 

system now located well northeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 

continues to support strong to gale-force northerly winds across 

the basin. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite

pass. These winds are producing rough seas extending as far 

south as 05N and west to 110W. As the pressure gradient

decreases, winds will diminish below gale force and shrink in 

areal extent by this morning across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 

briefly pulsing again to near gale force tonight. Rough seas 

will also linger in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream into 

Tue.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 07N77W to 05N87W.

The ITCZ stretches from 05N87W to 05N105W and to 09N123W. A 

surface trough is analyzed from 11N122W to 05N127W. The ITCZ 

continues from 06N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate 

convection is observed from 05N to 17N and between 107W and 135W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information about the 

Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec Region.



A weak cold front is analyzed from southern California to the

offshore waters of Baja California norte near 28N120W. A recent

scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong southerly

winds in the northern Gulf of California, ahead of the frontal

boundary. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. A weak 1018 mb high

pressure system off southern Baja California dominates the

remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico, excluding the Gulf 

of Tehuantepec. The timid gradient supports light to gentle winds

and slight to moderate seas. However, locally moderate NE-E winds

and moderate seas are found in the far offshore waters of

Oaxaca and eastern Guerrero.



For the forecast, a weak cold front will move across Baja Norte

and the northern Gulf of California, followed by a weaker 

reinforcing front over the next few days. Fresh to strong S-SW 

winds in the northern waters will continue through this morning.

By this afternoon, wind there will weaken, leaving gentle to 

moderate winds to prevail through the early part of next week 

over the Gulf of California. New northerly swell will arrive into

the Baja Norte waters today, reaching near 10 ft to the NW of 

Isla Guadalupe, before subsiding across the Baja waters Mon 

through Mon night. Light to gentle winds will continue across the

Baja offshore waters through Sun evening, then gradually return 

to moderate N to NW winds Mon through Tue, as high pressure 

begins to build across the region. Winds across the Baja offshore

waters southward to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands will 

increase to fresh to locally strong Tue night through Wed as high

pressure sinks to near 30N and builds across the region. 

Meanwhile, strong to gale- force N winds will persist across the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec until Tue night, producing rough seas.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A strong ridge well north of the area forces fresh to near gale-

force easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, spreading

downstream to 92W. Gusts may be reaching gale force at the

moment. Moderate to fresh NE gap winds are also noted off the 

coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador. Seas in the areas 

described are generally 6-9 ft. Farther east, the same high

pressure system supports fresh to strong northerly winds and 

seas of 3-6 ft in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to near

04N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 

seas prevail. 



For the forecast, a robust high pressure system centered well

north of the Caribbean will continue to support fresh to locally

near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas in the Gulf of 

Papagayo through Mon, then pulsing fresh to strong winds through 

the remainder of the forecast period. Seas generated by the gale 

force winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across the 

offshore waters of Guatemala through late today, with seas

peaking around 8 ft in northerly swell today. The fresh to strong

northerly winds currently in the Gulf of Panama will diminish 

later this morning, pulsing to locally fresh at night over the 

next few days. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 

seas will prevail elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A weak cold front is noted in the far NE waters of the tropical

eastern Pacific. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate

mainly moderate NW-N winds behind the boundary. However, a 

northerly swell now occupies the waters behind the boundary, with

seas to 9 ft north of 29N and between 121W and 135W. The rest of

the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge north of the area.

Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are noted over much of the

tropical waters between the ITCZ and 20N. Satellite-derived wind

data depicts stronger winds, likely gusting to gale-force, in a

cluster of robust convection associated with the surface trough

described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.



Elsewhere, fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas

are present east of 107W and north of the ITCZ due to the winds 

and swell spreading downstream from the gap wind events occurring

in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo. In the rest of the

basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will 

persist through this evening in the eastern waters south of 20N 

as additional swell propagates westward from prolonged gap wind 

events farther east. To the west, trade winds will diminish 

somewhat and seas will gradually subside from east to west 

through Monday as the high pressure weakens. Farther north, the 

aforementioned cold front will move through the waters north of 

25N and east of 125W through Mon. Northerly swell producing rough

seas will follow the front, and cover the region north of 25N by

tonight and subside below 8 ft Mon night. Looking ahead, high 

pressure over the the NE Pacific will build back along about 30N 

by Wed, and increase the pressure gradient across the trade wind 

zone W of 115W through the end of the work week. Winds will 

increase to fresh to strong S of 20N there, with seas building to

7-10 ft.



$$

Delgado