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AXPZ20 KNHC 261539

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Sun Jan 26 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure located well 

northeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to shift eastward

of 90W, but is still supporting gale-force northerly winds 

within 60 nm of the coast of Tehuantepec. Strong to gale force

winds extend south-southwestward from Tehuantepec to 13.5N and  

are producing rough seas to 11 ft extending as far south as 05N 

and westward to 110W. As the pressure gradient decreases, winds 

will diminish below gale force and shrink in areal extent later 

this morning across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, briefly pulsing 

again to near gale force tonight. Rough seas will also linger in 

the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream into Tue.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 

National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 09.5N76W to low

pressure 1008 mb near 07N78.5W to 06.5N87W. The ITCZ stretches 

from 06.5N87W to 05N96W to 08.5N121W, then resumes near 06.5N133W

to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 

observed from 06N to 12.5N and between 108W and 125W. Scattered

moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N west

of 129W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information about the 

Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec Region.



A weak cold front is analyzed from southwestern Arizona across

the extreme northern Gulf of California, across Baja Norte to 

the offshore waters beyond 27N120W. Overnight satellite 

scatterometer data captured fresh to strong southerly winds in 

the northern Gulf of California, ahead of the frontal boundary. 

Seas in these waters remain 3-6 ft. A weak 1020 mb high pressure

system just off southern Baja California dominates the remainder

of the offshore waters of Mexico, excluding the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec. The timid gradient supports light to gentle winds 

and slight to moderate seas. However, locally moderate NE-E winds

and moderate seas are found in the far offshore waters of Oaxaca

and eastern Guerrero, associated with the gap winds spilling

across Tehuantepec.



For the forecast, a weak cold front will move across Baja Norte

and the northern Gulf of California, followed by a weaker 

reinforcing front over the next few days. Fresh to strong S-SW 

winds in the northern waters of the Gulf will continue through 

this morning. By this afternoon, winds there will weaken, 

leaving gentle to moderate winds to prevail through the early 

part of next week over the Gulf of California. New northerly 

swell will arrive into the Baja Norte waters today, reaching near

10 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe, before subsiding across the 

Baja waters Mon through Mon night. Light to gentle winds will 

continue across the Baja offshore waters through Sun evening, 

then gradually return to moderate N to NW winds Mon through Tue, 

as high pressure begins to build across the region. Winds across 

the Baja offshore waters southward to beyond the Revillagigedo 

Islands will increase to fresh to locally strong Tue night 

through Wed as high pressure sinks to near 30N and builds across 

the region. Meanwhile, strong to gale-force N winds will persist

across the Gulf of Tehuantepec until Tue night, producing rough 

seas.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A strong ridge north of the area across the eastern Gulf of

Mexico and extreme NW Caribbean continues to force fresh to near

gale-force easterly gap winds across Papagayo region, spreading 

downstream to 93W this morning. Gusts may be reaching gale force 

at the moment. Moderate to fresh NE gap winds are also noted off 

the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador. Seas in the 

areas described are generally 6-9 ft. Farther east, the same high

pressure system supports fresh to strong northerly winds and 

seas of 3-6 ft across the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 

near 04.5N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas prevail. 



For the forecast, a robust high pressure system centered well

north of the Caribbean will continue to support fresh to locally

near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas across the Papagayo

region through Mon, then pulse fresh to strong winds through the

remainder of the forecast period. Seas generated by the gale 

force winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across the 

offshore waters of Guatemala through late today, with seas 

peaking around 8 ft in northerly swell today. The fresh to strong

northerly winds currently in the Gulf of Panama will diminish 

later this morning, pulsing to locally fresh at night over the 

next few days. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 

seas will prevail elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A weak cold front is noted in the far NE waters of the tropical

eastern Pacific, extending from Baja California Norte to near

27N120W to 25N129W. Overnight satellite scatterometer data 

indicated mainly moderate NW-N winds behind the boundary. 

However, northerly swell is now moving into the waters behind the

boundary, with seas to 9 ft north of 29N and between 121W and 

135W. The rest of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge 

north of the area. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are 

noted over much of the tropical waters between the ITCZ and 20N. 

Satellite-derived wind data depicts stronger winds, likely 

gusting to gale-force, in a cluster of active convection 

associated with a surface trough along 127W in the ITCZ.



Elsewhere, fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas

are present east of 107W and north of the ITCZ due to the winds 

and swell spreading downstream from the strong gap wind events 

occurring in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo region. In 

the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas

are prevalent.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will 

persist through this evening in the eastern waters south of 20N 

as additional swell propagates westward from prolonged gap wind 

events farther to the east. To the west, trade winds will 

diminish somewhat and seas will gradually subside from east to 

west through Monday as the high pressure weakens. Farther north, 

the aforementioned cold front will move through the waters north 

of 25N and east of 125W through Mon. Northerly swell producing 

rough seas will follow the front, and cover the region north of 

25N by tonight and subside below 8 ft Mon night. Looking ahead, 

high pressure over the the NE Pacific will build along about 30N

by Wed, and increase the pressure gradient across the trade wind

zone W of 115W through the end of the work week. Winds will 

increase to fresh to strong S of 20N there, with seas building to

7-10 ft.



$$

Stripling