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AXPZ20 KNHC 262123

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Sun Jan 26 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2020 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure located well 

northeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to shift eastward

of 90W, causing northerly gap winds across the Tehuantepec area

to diminish to 30 kt or less late this afternoon. The Gale 

Warning has thus ended. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas 

Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from low pressure 1009 mb near 

10N76W to 06.5N89W. The ITCZ stretches from 06.5N89W to 10N127W,

then resumes near 06.5N138W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 

moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 

13N and between 106W and 121W and from 06.5N to 09.5N between 

131W and 138W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



High pressure centered across the SE U.S. coast and located well

northeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to shift eastward

and into the Atlantic, causing winds across the Bay of Campeche

to shift to E to SE this afternoon and producing a marked

decrease in northerly gap winds across the Tehuantepec area.

Strong winds less than 30 kt prevail across and downwind of

Tehuantepec to near 12N, as verified by recent satellite

scatterometer data. Associated rough seas to 10 ft extend as far

south as 05N and westward to 110W. 



A weak front has stalled from southwestern Arizona across the 

 northern Gulf of California, across Baja Norte to the offshore 

waters beyond 27N120W. Afternoon satellite scatterometer data 

showed light to gentle W to NW winds across the Baja Norte waters

behind this front. New NW swell is moving into the Baja Norte

waters today, producing seas of 5 to 7 ft NW of the front, except

8 to 9 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe. Fresh southwesterly winds

in the northern Gulf of California, are assumed to persist N of 

30N and ahead of the frontal boundary. Seas in these Gulf waters 

remain 3-5 ft. A weak 1021 mb high pressure system offshore 

southern Baja California dominates the remainder of the offshore 

waters of Mexico, excluding the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The timid 

gradient supports light to gentle winds and slight to moderate 

seas. However, moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas are found

in the far offshore waters of Oaxaca and eastern Guerrero, 

associated with the gap winds spilling across Tehuantepec.



For the forecast, the weak front will move slowly across Baja 

Norte and the northern Gulf of California, followed by a weaker 

reinforcing frontal trough on Mondays. Fresh SW winds in the 

northern waters of the Gulf will become W to SW this evening and

tonight, producing fresh to locally strong westerly gap winds

across the northern Gulf, before winds and seas diminish Mon

morning. New northwesterly swell moving into the Baja Norte 

waters today, will peak near 10 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe

early this evening, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere, before subsiding 

across the Baja waters Mon through Mon night. Light to gentle 

winds across the Baja offshore waters will gradually return to 

moderate N to NW winds Mon through Tue, as high pressure begins 

to build across the region. Winds across the Baja offshore waters

southward to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands will increase to 

fresh to locally strong Tue evening through Wed as high pressure

sinks to near 31N and builds across the region. Meanwhile, 

strong N gap winds will pulse to just below gale force tonight,

then persist across the Tehuantepec area N of 14N until Tue 

night, producing locally rough seas.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A slowly weakening ridge north of Central America extends south

and southwestward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and NW 

Caribbean, and continues to force fresh to strong NE to E gap 

winds across Papagayo region, spreading downstream to 92W this 

afternoon. Fresh NE gap winds are also noted off the coasts of 

Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador, including the Gulf of

Fonseca. Seas in the areas described are generally 5-7 ft except

8 to 9 ft downwind of Papagayo. Farther east, the same high 

pressure system supports fresh  northerly winds and seas of 3-6 

ft across the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to near 05N. 

Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 

prevail. 



For the forecast, high pressure centered well north of the 

Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong northeasterly

gap winds and rough seas across the Papagayo region through Mon,

then pulse fresh to strong winds through the remainder of the 

forecast period. Seas generated by the gale force winds in the 

Tehuantepec area will propagate across the offshore waters of 

Guatemala through tonight, with seas 7 to 8 ft in northerly 

swell this evening. The northerly winds across the Gulf of 

Panama will continue pulsing to locally fresh at night over the 

next few days. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 

seas will prevail elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A weak stationary front is noted in the far NE waters of the 

tropical eastern Pacific, extending from Baja California Norte to

near 27N120W to 25N128W. Afternoon satellite scatterometer data 

indicated mainly moderate gentle to moderate northwesterly winds

behind the boundary. Northerly swell is moving into the waters 

behind the boundary, with seas to 10 ft north of 29N and between

123W and 132W. The rest of the basin is dominated by a 

subtropical ridge nosing southward into the region between 130W

and 150W. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are noted over 

much of the tropical waters between the ITCZ and 20N to the west

of 115W. A low level perturbation in the trade wind zone is along

about 131W-132W, south of 15N, and is triggering active

convectiondescribed above. Satellite derived scatterometer data

depicted moderate to fresh trade winds to the E of this surface 

trough to 115W, and fresh to locally strong NE winds to the W of 

the trough to 140W. 



Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate to rough

seas are present east of 105W and north of the ITCZ to 18N due 

to the winds and swell spreading downstream from the strong gap 

wind events occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Papagayo 

region. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will 

persist through this evening in the waters E of 115W and S of 

18N as additional swell propagates westward from prolonged gap 

wind events farther to the east. To the west, trade winds will 

diminish somewhat and seas will gradually subside from east to 

west through late Monday as the high pressure to the north weakens.

Farther north, the aforementioned cold front will move through 

the waters north of 25N and east of 125W through Mon and

dissipate. Northerly swell producing rough seas will follow the 

front, and cover the region north of 24N tonight and subside 

below 8 ft Mon night. Looking ahead, high pressure over the the 

NE Pacific will build along about 30N-31N by Wed, and increase 

the pressure gradient across the trade wind zone W of 115W 

through the end of the work week. Winds will increase to fresh to

strong S of 20N there, with seas building to 7-10 ft.



$$

Stripling