****0000006170****
AXPZ20 KNHC 270252

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Mon Jan 27 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0230 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N89W. The ITCZ 

stretches from 07N89W to 09N129W, then resumes near 08N135W to 

beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 06N

and W of 106W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



High pressure centered across the SE U.S. coast and located well

northeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to shift eastward

and into the Atlantic, causing the near-gale NE winds across the

Tehuantepec area to continue decreasing tonight. Associated 

rough seas to 9 ft are noted with these winds. 



A weak front has stalled from southwestern Arizona across the 

northern Gulf of California, across Baja Norte to the offshore 

waters beyond 26N120W. Light to gentle W to NW winds prevail across

the Baja Norte waters behind this front. New NW swell is moving 

into the Baja Norte waters, producing seas of 5 to 7 ft NW of 

the front, except 8 to 9 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe. Fresh 

southwesterly winds in the northern Gulf of California, are 

assumed to persist N of 30N and ahead of the frontal boundary. 

Seas in these Gulf waters remain 3-4 ft. Surface ridging prevails

elsewhere, supporting light to gentle winds and slight to 

moderate seas. 



For the forecast, the weak front will move slowly across Baja 

Norte and the northern Gulf of California, followed by a weaker 

reinforcing frontal trough on Monday. Fresh to strong SW winds 

across the northern Gulf will pulse tonight. Northwesterly swell

will continue moving into the Baja Norte waters, will peak near 

10 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe tonight, and 5 to 8 ft 

elsewhere, before subsiding across the Baja waters through Mon 

night. Light to gentle winds across the Baja offshore waters will

gradually return to moderate N to NW winds Mon through Tue, as 

high pressure begins to build across the region. Winds across the

Baja offshore waters southward to beyond the Revillagigedo 

Islands will increase to fresh to locally strong Tue evening 

through Wed as high pressure sinks to near 31N and builds across 

the region. Near-gale NE winds and rough seas in the Tehuantepec

region will dissipate by mid-week. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A weakening ridge north of Central America extends south and 

southwestward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean,

and continues to force fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across 

Papagayo region, spreading downstream to 92W. Fresh NE gap winds

are also noted off the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras and El 

Salvador, including the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas in the areas 

described are generally 5-7 ft except 8 to 9 ft downwind of 

Papagayo. Farther east, the same high pressure system supports 

fresh northerly winds and seas of 3-6 ft across the Gulf of 

Panama, extending southward to near 05N. Elsewhere, moderate or 

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. 



For the forecast, the high pressure N of the area will continue 

to support fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds and rough seas

across the Papagayo region through Mon, then pulse fresh to 

strong winds through the remainder of the forecast period. The 

northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will continue pulsing 

to fresh at night over the next few days. Moderate or weaker 

winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A weak stationary front is noted in the far NE waters of the 

tropical eastern Pacific, extending from Baja California Norte to

near 26N120W to 25N129W. Latest scatterometer data indicated  

gentle to moderate northwesterly winds behind the frontal boundary.

Northerly swell is moving into the waters behind the boundary, 

with seas to 10 ft north of 26N and between 120W and 140W. The 

rest of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge nosing 

southward into the region W of 125W. Moderate to fresh easterly 

trade winds are noted over much of the tropical waters between 

the ITCZ and 20N to the west of 110W. An area of fresh to strong

winds prevails near the ITCZ and along 120W. A surface trough

breaks the ITCZ near 132W.



Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate to rough

seas are present east of 105W and north of the ITCZ to 18N due 

to the winds and swell spreading downstream from the strong gap 

wind events occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Papagayo 

region. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will 

persist through tonight in the waters E of 115W and S of 18N as 

additional swell propagates westward from prolonged gap wind 

events farther to the east. To the west, trade winds will 

diminish somewhat and seas will gradually subside from east to 

west through late Monday as the high pressure to the north 

weakens. Farther north, the front will drift through the waters 

north of 25N through Mon and dissipate. Northerly swell 

producing rough seas will follow the front, and cover the region 

north of 24N tonight and subside below 8 ft Mon night. Looking 

ahead, high pressure over the the NE Pacific will build along 

about 30N-31N by Wed, and increase the pressure gradient across 

the trade wind zone W of 115W through the end of the work week. 

Winds will increase to fresh to strong S of 20N there, with seas 

building to 7-10 ft.



$$

ERA