****0000005496****
AXPZ20 KNHC 270843

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Mon Jan 27 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0830 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N93W. The ITCZ 

stretches from 05N93W to 07N132W. Scattered moderate convection 

is noted N of 06N and W of 108W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



High pressure centered well northeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec

continues to shift eastward and into the Atlantic, causing the 

near-gale NE winds across the Tehuantepec. Associated rough seas

to 10 ft are noted with these winds. 



A stationary front is analyzed from 28N111W to 26N118W. Gentle 

to moderate W to NW winds prevail across the Baja Norte offshore waters

behind the front. NW swell is moving into the Baja Norte waters,

producing seas of 8 to 9 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe, and 5-8

ft mainly N of 25N. Fresh southwesterly winds in the northern 

Gulf of California, are assumed to persist N of 30N. Seas in 

the Gulf waters remain 3-4 ft. Surface ridging prevails 

elsewhere, supporting light to gentle winds and slight to 

moderate seas. 



For the forecast, the front will drift across Baja Norte and the

northern Gulf of California, followed by a weaker reinforcing 

frontal trough today. Northwesterly swell will continue moving 

into the Baja Norte waters, will peak near 10 ft to the NW of 

Isla Guadalupe early today, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere, before 

subsiding across the Baja waters through tonight. Light to gentle

winds across the Baja offshore waters will gradually return to 

moderate N to NW winds through Tue, as high pressure begins to 

build across the region. Winds across the Baja offshore waters 

southward to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands will increase to 

fresh to strong Tue evening through Wed as high pressure sinks to

near 31N and builds across the region. Near- gale NE winds and 

rough seas in the Tehuantepec region will dissipate by mid-week. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A weakening ridge north of Central America extends south and 

southwestward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean,

and continues to force fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across 

Papagayo region, spreading downstream to 92W. Fresh NE winds are

also noted off the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras and El 

Salvador, including the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas in the areas 

described are generally 5-7 ft except 8 ft downwind of Papagayo.

Farther east, the same high pressure system supports fresh 

northerly winds and seas of 3-6 ft across the Gulf of Panama, 

extending southward to near 05N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 

winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. 



For the forecast, the high pressure N of the area will continue 

to support fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds and rough seas

across the Papagayo region through today, then pulse fresh to 

strong winds through the remainder of the forecast period. The 

northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will continue pulsing 

to fresh at night over the next few days. Moderate or weaker 

winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A stationary front is noted from 28N111W to 26N118W. Latest 

scatterometer data indicated gentle to moderate northwesterly 

winds behind the frontal boundary. Northerly swell is moving into

the waters behind the boundary, with seas to 10 ft north of 26N 

and between 120W and 136W. The rest of the basin is dominated by

a subtropical ridge nosing southward into the region W of 110W. 

Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted over much of the 

tropical waters N of the ITCZ and west of 95W. An area of fresh 

to strong winds prevails near the ITCZ and along 120W. A surface 

trough breaks the ITCZ near 135W. Fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are

noted with the trough. Rough seas are noted in the vicinity o the

ITCZ between 96W and 124W. S of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh E to

SE winds and moderate seas are present.



For the forecast, fresh winds and rough seas will persist 

through today in the waters E of 124W and S of 12N as additional

swell propagates westward from prolonged gap wind events farther

to the east. To the west, trade winds will diminish somewhat and

seas will gradually subside from east to west through late 

Monday as the high pressure to the north weakens. Farther north, 

the front will drift through the waters north of 25N through

today and dissipate. Northerly swell producing rough seas will 

follow the front, and cover the region north of 24N subside 

below 8 ft tonight. Looking ahead, high pressure over the the NE

Pacific will build along about 30N-31N by Wed, and increase the 

pressure gradient across the trade wind zone W of 115W through 

the end of the work week. Winds will increase to fresh to strong 

S of 20N there, with seas building to 8-10 ft.



$$

ERA