****0000005287****
AXPZ20 KNHC 271555

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Mon Jan 27 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1530 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near

09N84W to 05N96W. The ITCZ extends from 05N96W to 07N131W. A

trough extends west of the ITCZ from 05N138W to 11N133W.

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 12N between

93W and 128W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



High pressure, centered well northeast of the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, continues to shift eastward into the Atlantic. This

is causing the near-gale NE winds across the Tehuantepec. 

Associated rough seas to 9 ft are noted with these winds. 



Meanwhile, a stationary front is analyzed in the southern Gulf of

California. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds prevail across the

Baja California offshore waters. NW swell is moving into the 

Baja Norte waters, producing seas of 8 ft N of Punta Eugenia, 

with 4 to 6 ft across the rest of the Baja California offshore 

waters. Fresh southwesterly winds in the northern Gulf of 

California, are assumed to persist N of 30N with seas to 4 ft. 

Gentle to moderate winds and seas 2 to 4 ft are noted across the

rest of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are likely occurring

across Cabo Corrientes, with light to gentle winds elsewhere.  

Seas range 4 to 6 ft within mostly E swell. 



For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken today, with a

post- frontal trough following it. Northwesterly swell across 

the Baja California Norte waters will subside below 8 ft later 

today. Near- gale NE winds and rough seas in the Tehuantepec 

region will dissipate by mid-week. Winds across Baja California 

and Gulf of California offshore waters will increase moderate to 

fresh Tue into Wed as high pressure begins to build across the 

region. These winds will continue through most of the week. Winds

across the Baja offshore waters southward to beyond the 

Revillagigedo Islands will increase to locally strong Tue evening

through Wed as high pressure sinks to near 31N and builds across

the region. Seas will remain moderate across the area during 

this time. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A weakening ridge north of Central America extends south and 

southwestward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean.

This is causing fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across 

Papagayo region, spreading downstream to 89W. Fresh NE winds are

also noted off the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras and El 

Salvador, including the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas in the areas 

described are 5-7 ft. Farther east, the same high pressure 

system supports moderate northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft 

across the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to near 05N. 

Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 

prevail. 



For the forecast, the high pressure N of the area will support 

fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds across the Papagayo 

region through early Wed. Winds will then pulse fresh to strong 

winds through at least Fri night. The northerly winds across the

Gulf of Panama will continue pulsing to fresh at night over the 

next few days. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 

seas will prevail elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Northerly swell from an old frontal boundary is noted across

waters N of 27N between 119W and 132W. Seas range 8 to 9 ft. 

The rest of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge

extending southward into the region W of 110W. Moderate to fresh

easterly winds are noted over much of the tropical waters N of 

the ITCZ and west of 95W. An area of fresh winds prevails W of 

130W, just west of a trough along 135W. Seas to 8 ft are also noted

with the trough. Rough seas are noted in the vicinity of the 

ITCZ between 96W and 124W. S of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh E to 

SE winds and moderate seas are present.



For the forecast, fresh winds and rough seas will persist 

through today in the waters E of 124W and S of 12N as additional

swell propagates westward from prolonged gap wind events farther

to the east. To the west, trade winds will diminish somewhat and

seas will gradually subside from east to west through late 

today as the high pressure to the north weakens. Farther north, 

northerly swell producing rough seas will subside below 8 ft 

tonight. Looking ahead, high pressure over the the NE Pacific 

will build along about 30N-31N by Wed, and increase the pressure 

gradient across the trade wind zone W of 115W through the end of 

the work week. Winds will increase to fresh to strong S of 20N 

there, with seas building to 8-10 ft.



$$

AReinhart