****0000005206****
AXPZ20 KNHC 272143

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Mon Jan 27 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2130 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near

09N84W to 06N96W. The ITCZ extends from 06N96W to 08N132W. A 

trough extends west of the ITCZ from 09N140W to 12N134W. 

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 

90W and 126W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted near

the trough from 09N to 13N between 133W and 138W.  



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



High pressure, centered well northeast of the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, continues to shift eastward into the Atlantic. This

is causing the near-gale force NE winds across the Tehuantepec. 

Associated seas 7 to 8 ft are noted with these winds. 



Meanwhile, surface ridging is building across the Baja California

offshore waters. The latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to

moderate N to NE winds across this area. Seas range 4 to 7 ft

within NW swell. Gentle to moderate NW winds are likely

prevailing across the Gulf of California with 1 to 2 ft seas.

Moderate to fresh winds are noted offshore Cabo Corrientes via

scatterometer, with light to gentle winds across the rest of the

southern Mexico offshore waters. Seas range 4 to 6 ft within 

mixed swell. 



For the forecast, the near- gale NE winds and rough seas in the 

Tehuantepec region will dissipate by Wed. Winds across Baja 

California and Gulf of California offshore waters will increase 

moderate to fresh Tue into Wed as high pressure continues to build

across the region. These winds will continue through most of the

week. Seas will remain moderate across the most of the Mexico

offshore waters through Sat night.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A weakening ridge is centered north of Central America extends 

south and southwestward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and NW 

Caribbean. This is causing fresh to strong NE to E gap winds 

across Papagayo region, spreading downstream to 92W, confirmed by

scatterometer. Seas range 6-7 ft. Farther east, the same high 

pressure system supports moderate northerly winds and seas of 4-6

ft across the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to near 05N. 

Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 

prevail. 



For the forecast, the high pressure N of the area will support 

fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds across the Papagayo 

region through early Wed. Winds will then pulse fresh to strong 

winds through at least Sat night. The northerly winds across the

Gulf of Panama will continue pulsing to fresh at night over the 

next few days. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 

seas will prevail elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Northerly swell from an old frontal boundary is noted across

waters N of 27N between 120W and 130W. Seas range 8 to 9 ft. The

rest of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge extending 

southward into the region W of 110W. Moderate to fresh easterly 

winds are noted over much of the tropical waters N of the ITCZ to

15N and west of 95W. Rough seas are noted in the vicinity of the

ITCZ between 100W and 118W. S of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate E 

to SE winds and moderate seas are present.



For the forecast, fresh winds and rough seas will persist 

through today in the waters E of 124W and S of 12N as additional

swell propagates westward from prolonged gap wind events farther

to the east. To the west, trade winds will diminish somewhat and

seas will gradually subside from east to west through late 

today as the high pressure to the north weakens. Farther north, 

northerly swell producing rough seas will subside below 8 ft 

tonight. Looking ahead, high pressure over the the NE Pacific 

will build along about 30N-31N by Wed, and increase the pressure 

gradient across the trade wind zone W of 115W through the end of 

the work week. Winds will increase to fresh to strong S of 20N 

there, with seas building to 8-10 ft.



as high pressure continues to build across the area, this will

increase the pressure gradient. This will lead to fresh to 

strong winds across the trade wind zone W of 115W beginning Tue 

afternoon and continuing through the weekend. Seas will build 8

to 11 ft. A frontal system will approach the NW waters and bring

locally strong winds and rough seas N of 29N and W of 135W on

Wed. These conditions will quickly improve by Thu morning before

a stronger frontal system brings another round fresh to strong 

winds and rough seas by the weekend. 





$$ 

AReinhart