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AXPZ20 KNHC 280214

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Tue Jan 28 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0200 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends off the coast of NW Colombia near 

07N78W to 05N90W. The ITCZ extends from 05N90W to 08N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N and E of

88W, and from 05N to 12N between 102W and 124W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



High pressure, centered well northeast of the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, continues to shift eastward into the Atlantic. This

is causing the near-gale force NE winds across the Tehuantepec. 

Associated seas 7 to 8 ft are noted with these winds. 



Meanwhile, surface ridging is building across the Baja California

offshore waters. The latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to

moderate N to NE winds across this area. Seas range 4 to 7 ft

in NW swell. Gentle to moderate NW winds are prevailing across 

the Gulf of California with 1 to 2 ft seas. Moderate to fresh 

winds are noted offshore Cabo Corrientes via scatterometer, with 

light to gentle winds across the rest of the southern Mexico 

offshore waters. Seas range 4 to 6 ft within mixed swell. 



For the forecast, the near-gale NE winds and rough seas in the 

Tehuantepec region will dissipate by Wed. Winds across Baja 

California and Gulf of California offshore waters will increase 

moderate to fresh Tue into Wed as high pressure continues to 

build across the region. These winds will continue through most 

of the week. Seas will remain moderate across the most of the 

Mexico offshore waters through Sat night.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A weakening ridge extends south and southwestward across the 

eastern Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean. This is causing fresh to

strong NE to E gap winds across Papagayo region, spreading 

downstream to 90W, confirmed by scatterometer. Seas range 6-7 

ft. Farther east, the same high pressure system supports moderate

northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft across the Gulf of Panama, 

extending southward to near 05N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 

winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. 



For the forecast, the high pressure N of the area will support 

fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds across the Papagayo 

region through early Wed. Winds will then pulse fresh to strong 

winds through at least Sat night. The northerly winds across the

Gulf of Panama will continue pulsing to fresh at night over the 

next few days. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 

seas will prevail elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Northerly swell from an old frontal boundary is noted across

waters N of 20N between 120W and 130W. Seas peak to 8 ft in this

area. The rest of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge 

extending southward into the region W of 110W. Moderate to fresh 

easterly winds are noted over much of the tropical waters N of 

the ITCZ to 15N and west of 95W. Rough seas are noted in the 

vicinity of the ITCZ between 100W and 118W. S of the ITCZ, gentle

to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas are present.



For the forecast, fresh winds and rough seas will persist 

through tonight in the waters E of 124W and S of 12N as 

additional swell propagates westward from prolonged gap wind 

events farther to the east. To the west, trade winds will 

diminish somewhat and seas will gradually subside from east to 

west through tonight as the high pressure to the north weakens. 

Farther north, northerly swell producing moderate seas will 

continue subside tonight. Looking ahead, high pressure over the 

the NE Pacific will build along about 30N-31N by Wed, and 

increase the pressure gradient across the trade wind zone W of 

115W through the end of the work week. Winds will increase to 

fresh to strong S of 20N there, with seas building to 8-10 ft.



As high pressure continues to build across the area, this will 

increase the pressure gradient. This will lead to fresh to strong

winds across the trade wind zone W of 115W beginning Tue 

afternoon and continuing through the weekend. Seas will build 8 

to 11 ft. A frontal system will approach the NW waters and bring 

locally strong winds and rough seas N of 29N and W of 135W on 

Wed. These conditions will quickly improve by Thu morning before 

a stronger frontal system brings another round fresh to strong 

winds and rough seas by the weekend. 



$$

ERA