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AXPZ20 KNHC 281544

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Tue Jan 28 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1530 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Panama near 08N79W

and continues to 09N86W to 06N92W to 05N100W to 08N115W, where 

it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N130W to 08N140W. Scattered 

moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 

106W and 110W, and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 114W and 

119W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



The pressure gradient in the Tehuantepec region continues to 

support strong to near gale north winds along with seas to 9 ft.

Meanwhile, surface ridging is building across the Baja 

California offshore waters. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds 

prevail across this area. Seas range 4 to 6 ft in northwest 

swell. Gentle to moderate NW winds are prevailing across the Gulf

of California with 1 to 3 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds are 

noted offshore Cabo Corrientes along with light to gentle winds 

across the rest of the southern Mexico offshore waters. Seas are 

in the range 4 to 6 ft due to mixed swell. 



For the forecast, the near-gale northeast winds and rough seas 

in the Tehuantepec region will dissipate by Wed. Winds across 

Baja California and Gulf of California offshore waters will 

increase moderate to fresh today into Wed as high pressure 

continues to build across the region. These winds will continue 

through most of the rest of the week. Seas will remain moderate 

across the most of the Mexico offshore waters through Sat night. 

Fresh to strong NW winds will develop in the Gulf of California 

on Fri/Sat as pressure gradient intensifies. Seas to 7 ft are 

expected with these winds. Gale conditions and rough seas are 

possible in the Tehuantepec region on Sat.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A weakening ridge extends south and southwestward across the 

eastern Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean. This is causing fresh to

strong NE to E gap winds across Papagayo region, spreading 

downstream to 89W. Seas range 6-7 ft. Farther east, the same 

high pressure system supports moderate northerly winds and seas 

of 4-6 ft across the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to near 

05N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 

seas prevail. 



For the forecast, the high pressure N of the area will support 

fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds across the Papagayo 

region through early Wed. Winds will then pulse fresh to strong 

winds through at least Sat night. The northerly winds across the

Gulf of Panama will continue pulsing to fresh at night over the 

next few days. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 

seas will prevail elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Northerly swell from an old frontal boundary is noted across

waters N of 20N between 120W and 130W, with seas peaking 

to 8 ft in this area. Light to gentle winds prevail across this 

area. The rest of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge 

extending southward into the region west of 100W. Moderate to 

fresh easterly winds are noted over much of the tropical waters 

north of the ITCZ to 23N and west of 95W. Moderate to rough seas 

are noted in the vicinity of the ITCZ between 110W and 120W. S of

the ITCZ, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and 

moderate seas are present.



For the forecast, fresh winds and rough seas will persist 

through mid week. Winds will be reaching strong speeds by the 

end of the week, with seas to 10 ft. These conditions will 

subside by early next week. A frontal system will approach the

northwest part of the area on Wed, with the associated gradient 

leading to bring fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas 

north of 29N and west of 135W about on Wed. These conditions 

will quickly improve by Thu morning before a stronger frontal 

system brings another round fresh to strong winds and rough seas 

by the weekend. 



$$

Aguirre