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AXPZ20 KNHC 282135

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Tue Jan 28 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2130 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Colombia near 05N77W

to 04N97W to 08N114W. The ITCZ extends from 08N114W to beyond

08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N

and E of 93W and from 06N to 10N between 110W and 126W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



The pressure gradient in the Tehuantepec region continues to 

support strong to near gale north winds along with seas to 7 ft.

Meanwhile, surface ridging is building across the Baja 

California offshore waters. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds 

prevail across this area, with locally fresh winds off the

southern Baja California coast. Seas range 4 to 6 ft in 

northwest swell. Gentle to moderate NW winds are prevailing 

across the Gulf of California with 1 to 3 ft seas. Moderate to

locally fresh winds are noted offshore Cabo Corrientes along 

with light to gentle winds across the rest of the southern Mexico

offshore waters. Seas are in the range 4 to 6 ft due to mixed 

swell. 



For the forecast, the near-gale northeast winds and rough seas 

in the Tehuantepec region will dissipate by Wed. Winds across 

Baja California and Gulf of California offshore waters will 

increase moderate to fresh tonight into Wed as high pressure 

continues to build across the region. These winds will continue 

through Fri night. Seas will remain moderate across the most of 

the Mexico offshore waters through Sat night. Fresh to strong NW 

winds will develop in the Gulf of California on Fri into Sat as 

pressure gradient intensifies. Seas to 7 ft are expected with 

these winds. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A weakening ridge extends south and southwestward across the 

eastern Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean. This is causing fresh to

strong NE to E gap winds across Papagayo region, spreading 

downstream to 89W. Seas range 5-6 ft. Farther east, the same 

high pressure system supports moderate to fresh northerly winds 

and seas of 4-6 ft across the Gulf of Panama, extending southward

to near 04N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas prevail. 



For the forecast, the high pressure N of the area will support 

fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds across the Papagayo 

region through Wed morning. Winds will then pulse fresh to strong

winds through at least Sun night. The northerly winds across the

Gulf of Panama will continue pulsing to fresh tonight and improve

by Wed. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 

will prevail elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Most of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge extending 

southward into the region west of 100W. Moderate to fresh 

easterly winds are noted over much of the tropical waters north 

of the ITCZ to 23N and west of 105W. Moderate to rough seas are 

noted in the vicinity of the ITCZ between 115W and 135W. S of the

ITCZ, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and moderate 

seas are present.



For the forecast, fresh winds and rough seas across the 

tradewind zone will persist through mid week. Winds will be 

reaching strong speeds later today into tonight, with seas to 11

ft. These conditions will subside by early next week. A frontal 

system will approach the northwest part of the area on Wed, with 

the associated gradient leading to bring fresh to strong 

southerly winds and rough seas north of 29N and west of 135W 

tonight into Wed. These conditions will quickly improve by Thu 

morning before a stronger frontal system brings another round 

fresh to strong winds and rough seas by the weekend. 



$$

AReinhart