****0000004317****
AXPZ20 KNHC 290241

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Wed Jan 29 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0230 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Colombia near 07N78W

to 05N96W. The ITCZ extends from 05N96W to 08N140W. Scattered 

showers are noted along the ITCZ between 108W and 120W.  



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



The pressure gradient in the Tehuantepec region continues to 

support strong to near gale north winds along with seas to 7 ft.

Meanwhile, surface ridging is building across the Baja 

California offshore waters. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds 

prevail across this area, with locally fresh winds off the

southern Baja California coast. Seas range 4 to 6 ft in 

northwest swell. Gentle to moderate NW winds are prevailing 

across the Gulf of California with 1 to 3 ft seas. Moderate to

locally fresh winds are noted offshore Cabo Corrientes along 

with light to gentle winds across the rest of the southern Mexico

offshore waters. Seas are in the range 4 to 6 ft due to mixed 

swell. 



For the forecast, the near-gale northeast winds and rough seas 

in the Tehuantepec region will dissipate by Wed. Winds across 

Baja California and Gulf of California offshore waters will 

increase moderate to fresh tonight into Wed as high pressure 

continues to build across the region. These winds will continue 

through Fri night. Seas will remain moderate across the most of 

the Mexico offshore waters through Sat night. Fresh to strong NW 

winds will develop in the Gulf of California on Fri into Sat as 

pressure gradient intensifies. Seas to 7 ft are expected with 

these winds. Strong to near-gale gap winds in the Tehuantepec 

region are possible on Fri night and will continue pulsing 

through early next week.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A weakening ridge extends south and southwestward across the 

eastern Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean. This is causing fresh to

strong NE to E gap winds across Papagayo region, spreading 

downstream to 89W. Seas range 5-6 ft. Farther east, the same 

high pressure system supports moderate to fresh northerly winds 

and seas of 4-6 ft across the Gulf of Panama, extending southward

to near 04N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas prevail. 



For the forecast, the high pressure N of the area will support 

fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds across the Papagayo 

region through Wed morning. Winds will then pulse fresh to strong

winds through the forecast period. The northerly winds across 

the Gulf of Panama will continue pulsing to fresh tonight and 

improve by Wed. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 

seas will prevail elsewhere.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Most of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge extending 

southward into the region west of 110W. Moderate to fresh 

easterly winds are noted over much of the tropical waters north 

of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 105W. Moderate to rough seas are 

noted in the vicinity of the ITCZ between 115W and 135W. S of the

ITCZ, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and moderate 

seas are present.



For the forecast, fresh winds and rough seas across the 

tradewind zone will persist through mid week. These conditions 

will subside by early next week. A frontal system will approach 

the northwest part of the area on Wed, with the associated 

gradient leading to bring fresh to strong southerly winds and 

rough seas north of 29N and west of 135W tonight into Wed. These 

conditions will quickly improve by Thu morning before a stronger 

frontal system brings another round fresh to strong winds and 

rough seas by the weekend. 



$$

ERA