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AXPZ20 KNHC 292102

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Wed Jan 29 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2000 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from Colombia-Panama border near 

07N78W to 05N96W. The ITCZ extends from 05N96W to 07N113W and

from 07N117W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection noted from

06N to 09N...W of 121W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Surface ridging prevails across the Baja California offshore 

waters. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail across this area.

Seas range 5 to 8 ft in northwest swell. In the northern Gulf of

California, light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas prevail, 

with the central and southern gulf experiencing moderate to fresh

winds with 4 to 6 ft seas. These conditions have spread 

southward to include offshore waters near Cabo Corrientes as well

as the Revillagigedo Islands. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds are

noted with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. 



For the forecast, gap winds in the Tehuantepec region will 

return late Fri and increase to near gale through the weekend as 

high pressure builds southward through eastern Mexico. High 

pressure centered N of the area will lead to fresh winds W of 

Baja California as well as in the southern Gulf of California, 

southward to near Cabo Corrientes, into Sat.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure extends southwestward across the NW Caribbean. 

This is causing fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across Papagayo

region, spreading downstream to 90W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft. Farther

east, the same high pressure system supports moderate to fresh 

northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft across the Gulf of Panama. 

Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 

prevail. 



For the forecast, the high pressure centered N of the area will 

support pulsing fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds across 

the Papagayo region through the forecast period. The fresh 

northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will weaken today. 

Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail

elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Most of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge extending 

southward into the region. Moderate to fresh easterly winds along

with moderate to rough seas are noted over much of the tropical 

waters north of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 105W. S of the ITCZ,

gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and moderate seas are

present.



For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas 

across the tradewind zone will persist through the week. These 

conditions will improve by early next week. A frontal system will

approach the northwest part of the area tonight, with the 

associated gradient bringing fresh southerly winds and rough seas

north of 29N and west of 135W. These conditions will quickly 

improve by Thu morning before a stronger frontal system brings 

another round fresh to strong winds and rough seas by the 

weekend. 



$$

Konarik