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AXPZ20 KNHC 300239

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Thu Jan 29 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0000 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia

at 07N78W to 05N90W to 05N103W. The ITCZ extends from 05N103W to

low pressure 1011 mb near 06.5N114.5W to 08N128W to beyond

06N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N

to 09N between 113W and 123W, and from 06N to 15N between 123W 

and 140W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Surface ridging prevails across the Baja California offshore 

waters. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail across this area,

except locally strong from near Punta Eugenia southward, in the

southern Gulf of California, and near Cabo Corrientes where the

pressure gradient is tight. Seas range 5 to 8 ft in NW swell. 

Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere including east of 105W, 

and in the northern and central Gulf of California. Seas of 4 to 

6 ft in mixed swell prevail east of 105W, with 3 ft or less seas 

in the Gulf of California, except 4 to 7 ft in the southern Gulf.



For the forecast, gap winds in the Tehuantepec region will 

return and quickly become fresh to near gale-force early Fri 

evening, reaching gale-force late Fri evening and continuing into

early Sun as high pressure builds southward through eastern 

Mexico. Fresh to strong winds will then continue there through at

least Mon night. High pressure centered north of the area will 

lead to fresh to locally strong NW-N winds west of Baja 

California as well as in the southern Gulf of California, 

southward to near Cabo Corrientes, into Sat. These winds will 

support locally rough seas. Winds will be moderate or weaker with

mainly moderate seas elsewhere.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure extends southwestward across the NW Caribbean. 

This is causing fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across Papagayo

region, spreading downstream to 89W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft there. 

Farther east, the same high pressure system supports moderate to 

fresh northerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft across the Gulf of 

Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas prevail, along with no significant convection. 



For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will 

support pulsing fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds across 

the Papagayo region through the forecast period. Moderate to 

locally fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight 

and Thu night, then again Sun night. Moderate or weaker winds and

slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Most of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge extending 

southward into the region from 1024 mb high pressure centered

near 30.5N129W. Fresh to locally strong trades and 7 to 10 ft

seas are found from roughly 07N to 20N between 110W and 140W

between the ridging and lower pressure near and just north of the

ITCZ. Meanwhile, a cold front is just NW of 30N140W with fresh

winds and 7 to 9 ft seas just southeast of 30N140W. Winds are

moderate or weaker with mainly moderate seas across the remainder

of the open waters.



For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas 

across the tradewind zone will persist through the remainder of

the week into the upcoming weekend. These conditions will 

improve later in the upcoming weekend into early next week as the

pressure gradient weakens slightly. A frontal system will 

approach the northwest part of the area tonight, with the 

associated gradient bringing fresh southerly winds and rough seas

north of 289N and west of 135W. These conditions will quickly 

improve by Thu morning as the front dissipates, before a 

stronger frontal system brings another round fresh to strong 

winds and rough seas just southeast of 30N140W by the weekend.

The front and associated winds should weaken and diminish by 

early next week, while associated rough seas of up to around 12

ft linger.



$$

Lewitsky