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AXPZ20 KNHC 300828

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Thu Jan 30 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0650 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gap winds in the Tehuantepec 

region will return and quickly become fresh to near gale-force 

early Fri evening, reaching gale-force late Fri evening and 

continuing into early Sun as high pressure builds southward 

through eastern Mexico. Seas will peak at 12 to 14 ft during the

strongest winds, starting early Sat. Fresh to strong winds will 

then continue through at least Mon night once the gales end on

Sun. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore 

Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at 

websites: 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml for more details.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from the border of Panama and 

Colombia at 07.5N78W to 04N98W. The ITCZ extends from 04N98W to 

low pressure, 1011 mb, near 04N116.5W to 08N128W to beyond 

05N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N 

to 09N between 110W and 124W, and from 09N to 18N between 120W 

and 140W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a

developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.



Surface ridging prevails across the Baja California offshore 

waters. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail across this area,

except locally strong from near Punta Eugenia southward and near

Cabo Corrientes where the pressure gradient is tight, and as

confirmed by recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Similar winds are

extending from the southern Gulf of California southward from the

entrance. Seas range 5 to 8 ft in NW swell west of 105W. Winds 

are moderate or weaker elsewhere including east of 105W, and in 

the northern and central Gulf of California. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in

mixed swell prevail east of 105W, with 3 ft or less seas in the

northern and central Gulf of California.



For the forecast, other than the upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec

gale-force gap wind event discussed above, high pressure 

centered north of the area will lead to fresh to locally strong 

NW-N winds west of Baja California as well as in the southern 

Gulf of California, southward to near Cabo Corrientes, into Sat. 

These winds will support locally rough seas. Winds will be 

moderate or weaker with mainly moderate seas elsewhere through

the next several days.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



High pressure extends southwestward across the NW Caribbean. 

This is causing fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across Papagayo

region, spreading downstream to 90W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft there. 

Farther east, the same high pressure system supports moderate to

locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft across the 

Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to

moderate seas prevail, along with no significant convection. 



For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will 

support pulsing fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds across 

the Papagayo region through the forecast period. Moderate to 

locally fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight, 

then again Sun night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, except seas locally to

rough well offshore Guatemala this weekend due to a gale-force

Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event just northwest of those waters.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



Most of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge extending 

southward into the region across the waters north of the ITCZ. 

Fresh to locally strong trades are found across a large area from

roughly 07N to 20N between 114W and 140W as seen by recent ASCAT

scatterometer data. Seas are 7 to 11 ft with those winds.

Meanwhile, a slowing and weakening cold front is just NW of 

30N140W with moderate to fresh southerly winds and 7 to 8 ft 

seas just southeast of 30N140W. Winds are moderate or weaker with

mainly moderate seas across the remainder of the open waters,

including south of the ITCZ.



For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas 

across the tradewind zone will persist through the remainder of

the week into the upcoming weekend. These conditions will 

improve later in the upcoming weekend into early next week as the

pressure gradient weakens slightly. The weak front near 30N140W

may slip southeast, with the associated gradient bringing locally 

fresh southerly winds and rough seas north of 28N and west of 

135W this morning. These conditions will quickly improve by this

afternoon as the front dissipates, before a stronger frontal 

system brings another round fresh to strong winds and rough seas 

just southeast of 30N140W by the weekend. That next front and 

associated winds should weaken and diminish by early next week, 

while associated rough seas of up to around 12 ft may linger.



$$

Lewitsky