****0000004382**** WTIO30 FMEE 011832 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/2/20242025 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2024/10/01 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.9 S / 76.1 E (NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/10/02 06 UTC: 10.6 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 85 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 55 24H: 2024/10/02 18 UTC: 11.5 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 0 36H: 2024/10/03 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 0 48H: 2024/10/03 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 0 60H: 2024/10/04 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP 72H: 2024/10/04 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: FT=CI=2.5- THE 2ND SYSTEM OF THE SEASON BEGAN TO BE TRACKED BY RSMC THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF SYSTEM NO. 2 HAS CHANGED LITTLE, RETAINING ITS CURVED BAND STRUCTURE WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THE PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 1615Z SHOWS WINDS AT 30KT IN THE SOUTH-WEST QUADRANT, WITH A FEW OBSERVATIONS LIMITED TO 35KT UNDER THE CONVECTION. IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER SIGNIFICANT DATA (NOTABLY MICROWAVE IMAGES), THE SYSTEM WAS MAINTAINED AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AT 18Z. HOWEVER, ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES, BETWEEN 1730Z AND 1830Z, A SHARPER CURVED BAND APPEARS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AND THE ASCAT PASS AT 17Z (ARRIVING AFTER 18Z) SHOWS A MORE EXTENDED AREA OF 35KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE CHRISTENED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE BEST-TRACK MODIFIED FOR THE NEXT BULLETIN, UPGRADING IT TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AT 18Z. THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS FORECAST TO BE WEST-SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH-WEST ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTH-EAST. THE PASSAGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH COULD MORE OR LESS PULL THE SYSTEM'S TRACK SOUTHWARDS, LEADING TO A SCATTERING OF NUMERICAL FORECASTS FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS. HOWEVER, THE LATEST GFS RUN (12Z) HAS REVISED ITS TRACK FURTHER SOUTH, BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE IFS SCENARIO. THE RSMC TRACK IS THEREFORE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK BECOMES SIGNIFICANT FROM THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS ON THE RISE THIS TUESDAY EVENING IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT UNTIL TOMORROW WEDNESDAY: WEAK DEEP SHEAR, REDUCED MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR, VERY GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE BELOW THE RIDGE, HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON AND FAIRLY GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH AN ESTIMATED PEAK IN INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING (SLIGHTLY DELAYED COMPARED WITH THE 12Z NETWORK). FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, THE INTENSIFICATION WINDOW SHOULD GRADUALLY CLOSE, AS SOUTH TO SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, BRINGING DRY AIR TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM AND REDUCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE RESISTANCE OF THE VORTEX TO THESE INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON A LASTING WEAKENING FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO EVOLVE TO THE STAGE OF A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY FILLING IN, BUT WITH WINDS AT 30 KT THEN 25 KT FOR QUITE A LONG TIME DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT IN ITS SOUTHERN PART. NO IMPACT EXPECTED ON INHABITED LANDS.=